My weekly "LOCK" bet

Indiana · #1 09-14-2005, 09:59 PM

Colts/Jags under 46. Its good as gold. The Colts are slow starters. The Jags cannot convert on offense. I watched the Comcast tapes of both teams and have studied the tapes. Did anyone notice how many field goals the Jags were forced to attempt after failing in good position to score a TD?

Lock it in,

Indy

WackityWhiz · #2 09-15-2005, 03:08 AM

I was with ya on the colts last week, but I think this one is gonna be over. (38 - double digits) is my prediction

#3 09-15-2005, 07:16 AM

Indy - Appreciate the pick and analysis but there's one problem with your thinking here: a "lock" doesn't, and shouldn't, need to come weekly or by any measure of time. The only thing that matters is the strength of the game. If you go 5 weeks without a lock, that's fine. If there are 2-3 lock games in the same week, that's fine too. This lock of the week business is straight out of a 1-900 ad.

Also, doesn't this:

[ QUOTE ]
The Jags cannot convert on offense. I watched the Comcast tapes of both teams and have studied the tapes. Did anyone notice how many field goals the Jags were forced to attempt after failing in good position to score a TD?

[/ QUOTE ]

...suggest they may be due to convert more TDs in the red zone this time around? Is it not possible for Leftwich/Taylor/Smith etc. to learn from their mistakes in week 1? Isn't one week also not enough to judge a team by?

Anyway, at least I'm a fan of playing unders on some high totals.

Losing all · #4 09-15-2005, 08:57 AM

Easy over. aLLiN!!!

sekrah · #5 09-15-2005, 09:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy over. aLLiN!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say that.. Vegas is notorious for setting traps like this.

The over is screaming to be bet right here which doesn't smell right.. OP might be onto something.

#6 09-15-2005, 09:42 AM

Considering the scores of their matchups last year were 24-17 (41) and 27-24 (51), 46 seems just about right. By the standard of one game, Jax' O seems improved and Indy's D also looks improved -- these cancel each other out.

I'm a believer in going under on big totals but this one doesn't really jump out at me.

Easy E · #7 09-15-2005, 10:13 AM

However, a Shoe-In definately does! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

mrbaseball · #8 09-15-2005, 10:23 AM

And you shouldn't have more than 4 or 5 Games of the Year per month or more than a couple Games of the Century per season.

#9 09-15-2005, 10:26 AM

I'm hoping Big Al's week 1 shoo-in analysis applies to week 2 since Denver is my biggest play thus far.

Indiana · #10 09-15-2005, 10:37 AM

Manning burns time from the clock like Nasa burns cash...He will take his time and go slow. I also like the first half under 23. Look, all of you guys have your opinions, but did anybody watch the Jags game last week? I did and this is why I am betting the under. They had a horrific time trying to convert and ended up going for field goals most of the time. They also burned lots of time off the clock in the process.

Just wait and see,

Indy