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#11
06-24-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
[ QUOTE ]
Quite frankly, you guys are missing the basic understanding of mathmatical probability. [/ QUOTE ] You are falling prey to the most widespread and common misunderstanding of probability -- often called the "Gambler's Fallacy" in the context of gambling. The cards / dice / coin have no memory and never know that they needs to "make up" for a previous streak. If you flip an honest coin 20 times and it comes up heads each time, does the likelihood of it coming up tails on the next throw exceed 50%? Does the likelihood of hitting a streak that is lopsided in favor of tails increase? 
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#12
06-24-2005, 10:45 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
If this is how you want to do it, this is how we will do it.
[ QUOTE ] You're obviously not understanding what I meant. [/ QUOTE ] You are misunderstanding what everyone else is telling you. This is clear from your OP and your subsequent replies. You seem to fail to understand that short runs like this can happen and they imply absolutely nothing about the future. Nothing. In the long run, a session of holding fifty (or any other number) pocket pairs without flopping a set is nothing because 50/N ---> 0 as N ---> infinity. [ QUOTE ] And for the record I was a math minor, not a stats major. [/ QUOTE ] I am a Math PhD student. [ QUOTE ] Quite frankly, you guys are missing the basic understanding of mathmatical probability. [/ QUOTE ] I just got an A in the third quarter of graduate level probability. Now please, go look up The Gambler's Fallacy and stfu.
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#13
06-24-2005, 11:29 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
[ QUOTE ]
And the denominator gets pretty big, too. Let's say you went 100 PPs without flopping a set. The next 1,000,000 times you have a PP you flop a set 117,551 times, exactly the number you would expect with a true deck and random shuffles. Now your total is 117,551 flopped sets out of 1,000,100 PPs. You never made up the dry 100 PP streak, but your end results are damn close to the expected outcome (like 1/1000th of a percentile off). [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was implying in later posts...sorry if that was presented poorly. I certainly understand now why you were lead to believe otherwise after re-reading my posts.
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#14
06-25-2005, 12:15 AM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And the denominator gets pretty big, too. Let's say you went 100 PPs without flopping a set. The next 1,000,000 times you have a PP you flop a set 117,551 times, exactly the number you would expect with a true deck and random shuffles. Now your total is 117,551 flopped sets out of 1,000,100 PPs. You never made up the dry 100 PP streak, but your end results are damn close to the expected outcome (like 1/1000th of a percentile off). [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was implying in later posts...sorry if that was presented poorly. I certainly understand now why you were lead to believe otherwise after re-reading my posts. [/ QUOTE ] I defer to Jason on matters of probability. Your posts in this thread led an impartial reader more towards a view that you harbored a fundamental misunderstanding of probability than that you harbored an inability to communicate clearly your views. But that should be no big deal. We all make mistakes; none of us knows everything; when you make a mistake here you get corrected -- and YOU win because you've learned something new. Don't let the fact that you misunderstood or miscommunicated keep you from speaking out or arguing for your view of things -- you are generally either confirmed in your view of things (with great detail on why your view is correct) and thus learn something valuable, or you gain greater insight into an issue . . . in which case you learn something valuable. Either way, you win. Welcome to the forums!
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#15
06-25-2005, 07:33 AM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
Thanks. I didn't want to come off sounding like that, but I definately see how you got that impression. Now, had I said something along the lines of: "Well, I haven't flopped a set in 8 times so I better 4 bet preflop because I have to hit this time" then I'd expect to be mauled [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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