can you call this?

[Che]

Thanks to all who responded!

I thought this was an interesting hand for several reasons (which is why I didn't let the thread die at "fold that trash" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), but first:

As I already revealed, I was UTG+1. I called and the villain showed KT. Turn and river were blanks. MHIG.

Of course, the fact that I happened to be ahead this time doesn't mean it was a good call. If the villain's range of hands was AA/KK/22/K2/AK/KQ/KJ/KT for making this move, then lucking into the bottom of the range doesn't make the play "correct."

BTW I intentionally did not give my read on the LAG big stack because I wanted to give you guys the opportunity to say things like: "I fold except against a near-maniacal LAG" or "I fold quickly except against maniacs and I fold slowly against maniacs."

My take is that against most players (known or unknown), this is a fold. Against LAG big stacks, it can be a call.

As it turns out, the guy had accumulated his 3000 chips through very LAG play with hands that were far from premium. Not sure if he was paying attention to me or not, but if he was he would have noticed that I had only played two pots past the flop so far (2+ levels into the tourney) with one win in the two tries.

Given that most players would expect someone in EP to slowplay flopped trips, he probably read my bet (correctly) for a K. If he had noticed that I was capable of folding, putting me to the test for my whole stack was a good play IMHO.

But...what about the four players in between us? That's where his raise (and thus my call) gets dicey. I think pocket pairs JJ-33 are unlikely since even a maniac would know that the possibility of a call was pretty high with four players and a bettor still to act.

With five opponents and two 2's showing, there was a 38.4% chance that someone had a 2 assuming random card distribution. Then again, cards are dealt randomly, but players generally do not play random hands outside of the blinds. So the chance of a 2 being out there was probably much less.

As for better K's, with two showing (one on board, one in hand) the likelihood of someone having a K (at random) was also 38.4%, but this also overestimates the possibility since many of those K's would raise (AK, KK, maybe KQ since he is a LAG).

Then again, my impression is that very few players actually know the numbers so he probably did not know how likely his opponents were to have a 2 or a K. Anyway...

If anyone in between us had called, I would have been gone. For that matter, if either of the blinds had bet out, I would have been gone.

But, I put the villain on KQ/KJ/KT or K9s as his most likely holdings. Pocket pairs JJ-33 were also possible (AA-QQ would have raised preflop, 22 would just call). A2s and K2s were also possible, but I would have expected a call from either. (He was a LAG, but didn't appear to be a smart LAG.)

I haven't run that range in Pokerstove, but I'm confident that I was better than 50/50 against it. Getting 1.6:1, I thought it was a call.

Even so, I probably still fold that most of the time in order to "wait for a better opp," but I was very tired and really wasn't in the mood to get pushed around so I called and now we have this great thread! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

All in all, I think limping from EP with KJo is actually the worst play I made during the hand. I rarely do that, but 4 or more players seeing the flop at this table was not uncommon. A recent hand had a showdown for a big pot on a Qxxxx board and Q9o won!

If I'm not willing to loosen my postflop standards, I shouldn't loosen my preflop standards and play the KJo in the first place. I'm actually surprised more people didn't comment about the preflop limp.

Enough rambling. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Any more thoughts?

Later,
Che

[fnurt]

When I first read the hand, my reaction was like "Well Che can't be UTG+1, no way would he play KJo in EP," but I stand corrected!

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
$55 Party Multi - Blinds 15/30

UTG folds, UTG+1 limps with KJo, 3 folds, 3 calls, SB completes, BB checks.

(Pot: 180) Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Blinds check, UTG+1 bets 150, CO-1 pushes in 3030, folded back to UTG+1. (Note: None of the players who folded had more than 900 so CO-1 is only risking ~30% of his stack.)

770 to call, 1250 in pot (1.62:1 if you're wondering)

Can UTG+1 call this?

Thanks,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

Why bet the flop? Here virtually no cards hurt me on the turn, (aside from an ace) and I'm either crushing my opponents to ~2 or 3 outs (a PP or K) or they have me beaten badly. (With a deuce) I check this flop and auto bet the turn unless an A lands, in which case I check/fold. If someone else bets the flop I call, as J kicker vs this field is more often good then not. (Expect AK to raise, really only fearing KQ)

[Che]

BobbyFitos-

I like your line, especially against fewer opponents, but against 5 opponents I thought betting out was a little better.

Since the blinds have basically random hands, they are the ones most likely to have a 2. If the flop is checked around and one of them bets out, I will hate calling out of fear of a slowplay (by the bettor or someone behind me).

When I bet the flop, I know who is serious by the time it gets back to me. If two people want to play on, I'm beat. If only one, I can make an informed decision. If all fold, hooray!

Not saying my way is best. I could easily have played it your way (which might have been better).

Thanks,
Che

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
When I first read the hand, my reaction was like "Well Che can't be UTG+1, no way would he play KJo in EP," but I stand corrected!

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta mix it up, fnurt!

Seriously, I can't remember the last time I played KJo in EP in a non-rebuy event. Probably won't happen again for a while, but I was making a conscious effort to loosen up Wednesday night when this hand occured.

I've become a super-tight ABC player (for the most part) lately because the Party calling stations make bluffing unprofitable most of the time. I think I've gone a little overboard on the tight side so I was intentionally playing loose to help me prepare for the Million Guaranteed on the assumption that players there will be good enough to fold (which will make loose-agg play more correct).

Anyway, nice analysis but "no way" is a little strong...

Che

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
BobbyFitos-

I like your line, especially against fewer opponents, but against 5 opponents I thought betting out was a little better.

Since the blinds have basically random hands, they are the ones most likely to have a 2. If the flop is checked around and one of them bets out, I will hate calling out of fear of a slowplay (by the bettor or someone behind me).

When I bet the flop, I know who is serious by the time it gets back to me. If two people want to play on, I'm beat. If only one, I can make an informed decision. If all fold, hooray!

Not saying my way is best. I could easily have played it your way (which might have been better).

Thanks,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, I like your thoughts here. So if SB or BB had been the one to move on you, rather than CO-1, it would be an easy laydown, right?

I like your analysis concerning calling CO-1, too; I probably would've folded. (If I bet out, I guess)

If you do check, though, and a blank falls, (anything other than an Ace, I guess) and a blind bets out, they may or may not have a deuce. Thing is, on that flop if I was a blind and I *did* have a deuce I would slowplay that street, as there arent any conceivable draws out; but I would bet out the turn if no one bet the flop for me. So I guess I could fold if one of the blinds bets out on the turn, as well. I dont want it to sound as though I'm looking for a reason to fold, as that's not the way to money in tournaments, but I think you can sitll leak money out later in the hand once your hand is cememnted as best, I guess.

Oh, another thing, if you check the flop, a blind with a weak king may call your turn bet, so you may get added value there.

[Che]

woodguy-

[ QUOTE ]
Che,

Are you just trying to prove most of us are weak-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

No, fnurt said a call was 'inconceivable' and he's definitely not weak-tight. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I'm just trying to point out that folding simply because you have a weak hand like TP3K without first putting your opponent on a range of hands is bad poker.

It's very similar to calling big bets with AA postflop on scary boards because "AA is a big hand" even when you should know you're behind your opponents range of hands.

Poker 101 is that you don't make decisions solely based on your own cards.

Later,
Che

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
So if SB or BB had been the one to move on you, rather than CO-1, it would be an easy laydown, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. They are more likely to have a 2 than any other player, and a check-raise would actually make sense for a player in the blinds since calling and then checking the turn would be giving 2 free cards. If they're going to bet out on the turn, they may as well raise.

A player with a 2 and position could just call since they can bet the turn if I check so a call from CO-1 would have looked stronger than his raise from my perspective.

Edit: Also, the player with a 2 and players still to act would call so as to not scare off weak kings. The blinds wouldn't have to worry about scaring off anyone other than me.

Later,
Che

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying to point out that folding simply because you have a weak hand like TP3K without first putting your opponent on a range of hands is bad poker.

It's very similar to calling big bets with AA postflop on scary boards because "AA is a big hand" even when you should know you're behind your opponents range of hands.

Poker 101 is that you don't make decisions solely based on your own cards.


[/ QUOTE ]


True.True.True.

I just looked at your results and the other comments and I learned a couple of things:

1) I am weak-tight [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
2) I see too many monsters under the bed
3) Unrasied pots scare me (see point #1)

Upon reflection I was giving too much credit to CO-1, but I'm still not positive I should have discounted all x2 hands except A2 (K2 is 98% calling here), given the PF limpfest.

I guess this is why I rarely limp, I don't know how to play an unraised pot! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Good post, and great discussion.

Regards,
Woodguy

[fnurt]

Well, personally, I learned something from this thread!