can you call this?

[dogmeat]

Are you talking about preflop or postflop? Oh, does not matter - I personally can't call either.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[AceKQJT]

Hi Che,

What could the guy have? He's not on a draw (no str8 or flush board) Therefore, he must be betting a fair hand. The problem is, UTG+1 is beating a lot of the hands that LP1 could play this way...(Kxs, 3-3 to Q-Q). He could have any number of hands with a "2", and he may very well bet them like that (I wouldn't).

I put the guy on T-T, J-J, Q-Q, KQ. I'm really starting to suspect KQ.

I think I'm gonna fold here, because if this guy is betting this way and does not have me beat, then I'll surely get another opportunity to take his chips when I feel better about my holding.

--Casey

[augie00]

The chance that you're ahead is slim to none, and you're not even getting a good price on your money. You're looking for a J to win this. FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. No brainer.

[SossMan]

Pretty tough to put the villian on AK. I guess KQ would be in his range of hands. Any middle pair is also conceivable. Any smaller king is very likely. A duece is reasonable preflop, but sort of unlikely that he would shut that many people out if he had a duece and there were no draws on board. I'll give him credit for A2,K2,Q2s,23,24. I think this is generous.

I put him on any King with equal frequency, except I'll discount AK by 50% since most players would raise preflop after a bunch of limpers.
I'll also put him on any pair TT-33 with equal frequency, and I'll again discount JJ-AA by 50% since most players would raise those preflop vs. a bunch of limpers.
I'll throw in a few random bluffing hands, too.

Pair Hands
AA - 6 ways * .5 = 3 combos
KK - 1 way * .5 = .5 combos
QQ - 6 ways * .5 = 3 combos
JJ - 3 ways * 50% = 1.5 combos
TT-33 - 6 ways each = 6*8 = 48 combos

King Hands
AK = 12 ways * 50% = 6 combos
KQ = 12 combos
KJ = 9 combos
KT - K3 = 12 combos each = 12 * 8 = 72 combos

Duece Hands
A2 - 8 combos
K2 - 4 combos
Q2 - 8 combos
23 - 8 combos
24 - 8 combos


Let's say another 10 random combinations of bluffing hands.

# of combos of hands that we are losing to: 57.5 (i think that's generous given that we didn't discount the 2's at all). On about half of those hands, we have 2 outs twice. On most of the other ones, we will have 3 outs twice. Occasionally, we are drawing very thin to runner runner.
On the whole, we are probably 90% dogs when we are behind.

# of combos of hands in which we are winning: 143.5
We are, on average, 85% favorites to win when we are ahead.

Given this analysis, and the 1.6+:1 odds the pot is laying us, it seems like a pretty clear call.

Conclusion: calling all in early in a tourney against unknown online opponents is underrated.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that you're ahead is slim to none, and you're not even getting a good price on your money. You're looking for a J to win this. FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. No brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you put him on exactly the range of hands that beats you, huh?

[fnurt]

I totally can't agree that hands like K3 are just as likely as KQ, nor can I agree that K3 is twice as likely as AK.

You are postulating a player who plays K3, K4, etc, every single time, suited or unsuited. That in itself is rare. But then to give such a weak player credit for raising 50% of the time with AK is, I think, unwarranted.

I agree that the opponent would limp in with any pair, but after he makes a massive all-in raise, you have to discount his chances of holding hands like 33 somewhat! What your calculations assume is that he is equally likely to raise you all-in whether he holds KQ or 33, and I disagree with this.

[SossMan]

I put him on a range of hands that I felt would be consistant with his preflop and postflop actions. If you disagree with that range, adjust it...i've done all the hard work...play with the numbers. I'd be surprised if you could manipulate an unknown online player's range of hands to make it so that it is -EV to call.

[ QUOTE ]
But then to give such a weak player credit for raising 50% of the time with AK is, I think, unwarranted.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not stating that an individual player would raise AK in that spot 50% of the time, but that 50% of unknown players would raise preflop in that spot w/ AK. (That is probably understated, if anything). It doesn't really matter, though...go ahead and give full credit to AK. It doensn't change the #'s very much.

The point is that there really are only two hands that we are not beating that are consistant with his preflop and postflop play: KQ and KJ. We are tied w/ KJ and are losing to KQ.
Even in a narrow range of hands, there are many more that he could play in that mannor that we are killing.
How bout this range: KT, K9, K8, K7, K6s-K3s. 77-QQ.
Even against this narrow range, we are killing him.

[Cleveland Guy]

Okay - so this is early in a multi.

Do you have a read on the guy with 3000 chips? he seems way out in front, so were you at his table when he double up? or tripled up? has he been seeing a lot of flops and pushing people around?

Personally I'm not limping here with KJo from that early a position this early in a tournament.
But if you have a good read where he doesn't have the K or 2, I would call him.

Given no read, I would fold.

[gergery]

ok, what do we know about CO+1?

If he has T3030 with the blinds at 15/30 then unless he got lucky to triple up with a monster early, he is a big gambler type. His overbet here supports that.

This type likes to trap with monsters, but bet big with medium hands and draws, and LOVES to bet big with a big stack to muscle out opponents. He cannot have a 2 or he’d slowplay to keep the blinds in and encourage CO+1 to bet again. He’d likely raise preflop with AK, would pop it preflop with 77-JJ and flatcall or minraise with AA-QQ.

His big overbet is hoping to use both the 22x board and its sheer size to make someone go away, so he has a hand that’s vulnerable, but he’s probably not a stupid maniac to do this with complete crap (there aren’t as many stupid maniacs at $50).

Range of hands: K9-K3, pocket pair 33-77. You are ahead of his most likely range of hands. But also possible are AA, weak 2’s, better Ks, medium A’s. Best guess of his hand is 66.

So you’re likely ahead but I don’t know if I trust my read enough to commit my stack. Especially since this guy will be risking lots of chips again in the near future and is easy to trap. So if I can find my balls, I call. Otherwise my weak-tight ass waits to trap him.

--Greg

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
my weak-tight ass waits to trap him

[/ QUOTE ]

SEXXXXY!!! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]