Difficult Draw Tournament Decision

[Tom Bayes]

I'll make this post here rather than the MTT forum because none of the regulars there play draw, I presume.

There was a very interesting hand at the final table of the €25/rebuy draw event on Sunday at 24h. I had been running well and had been chip leader for most of the tourney and reached the final table in 1st place with almost half the chips. Then I went card dead and started getting blinded down, but still in the lead. We were down to 4 players when the hand occured. The winner would get €450, 2nd place €300, 3rd place €180, and 4th €120.


UTG (who had already won the Omaha/8 event earlier that day at 24h and is a good tournament player) was short-stacked and went all-in in first position. This player was at the point where he knew he had to push with anything decent. The button was in 2nd chip position (almost as many chips as me) and raised. I was in the SB and had QQQ. I reraised. The big blind then re-reraised, putting himself all-in. The button then pushed all-in. If I call and lose, I'm crippled and will have just enough to cover 1 round of blinds.

As far as reads, all of the players are solid, tough players-no fish left. The BB is maybe a bit too loose.

Do you:
(a) laydown QQQ since it is likely that either the button, the BB, or both are pat, leaving yourself with an average stack if the BB wins and at more than a 2-to-1 chip disadvantage if the button wins and knocks the other two players out,
or (b) call and win the tournament with a 3 player KO if QQQ is actually good or you draw a boat or quads. If you call and lose, you will be left with barely enough chips to pay one round of blinds.

I'll post what I did and what everyone had later.

[TheShootah]

I fold. Logic here tells you you are probably beaten. I mean, when the big blind reraises all in you are in deep crap, at least I think so....

[bigpooch]

This seems pretty clear to me, but let's work out some
details just to be sure. I couldn't tell that this tourney
was PL, but I'll assume it is.

In case (a), if the BB wins, your equity will be around
310 euros and if the button wins, your equity will be around
350 euros. Most likely, the BB will win, especially if he
has noticed you folding a lot and it seems like you woke up
with a big hand but he is still willing to put in chips now
that everyone is playing! So say it's just above 320 euros
for case (a).

In case (b), it doesn't seem likely you have the best hand
unless the BB is an awful tournament player: why is he
getting involved when it seems so likely that the short
stack will get eliminated this very hand?

Sure, the button might have reraised with any two pair or
even a hand like KKA if he thought the small stack was going
all in with a hand like TT. Your reraise signals that you
have a legitimate hand, at least a hand like aces up or
trips or better. The BB expects to get called by somebody
since it seems that there is at least one legitimate hand
here. Since the button pushed, he must have a real hand to
play given your raise and a reraise unless he isn't a tough
player (I think he ought to muck anything less than high
trips in his spot). I would think if these players are
decent, you would expect the BB to hold at least medium
trips (given you said he was a bit loose) and the button to
have at least big trips too. So what were your side
cards? Since you didn't mention you held an ace or king, I
assume they weren't present in your hand and we'll say you
held a medium card (thus decreasing the chances of someone
holding that specific rank for trips to just over 1/4 of
what is normal). If someone holds medium trips or better,
he will be pat about 40% of the time and in this situation
(the small stack could have AA or KK as well as JJ or TT)
about 25% of the time, this player will have bigger trips
than you. You are against two opponents, so you may have
less than a 15% chance of having the best hand before the
draw. Optimistically, it might be 20% and add to that
about a 10% chance of improving your hand (btw, sometimes
you may improve and still lose!).

So let's say that you are going to draw down to your three
queens if you play and overall you will end up with the very
best hand about 30% of the time and the rest of the time,
you end up being third, so your overall equity is just over
260 euros. Also, even if you think you'll end up with the
best hand about half the time, and finish third the rest of
the time, your equity is just over 310 euros.

It seems quite clear that you should fold since it is likely
that you will not end up with the best hand against your
primary opponents (the BB and the button) close to half of
the time.

[Tom Bayes]

Thanks to Shootah and BigPooch for their responses. I appreciate Pooch's thought process in approximating the equity, even with some pertinent details missing. I don't have the hand history available, so everything is from memory.

The event was pot-limit (it was at 24h). I believe the blinds were 500/1000 (might have been 800/1500). A rough guess of stack sizes were: me 22K, button 20K, BB 12K, UTG 2K. My other cards with my QQQ were low-don't recall exactly, but certainly not aces or faces.

I ended up folding, feeling pretty sure that I would be drawing uphill against at least one and maybe two pat hands. I obviously didn't have a chance to do the calculations to estimate equity, but my instinct told me that it was better with a fold.

Here's what happened-one of the most AMAZING hands I've seen.
UTG draws one, Button raps pat, BB draws two.
UTG shows down AAKKx, failing to improve aces up.
BB shows down unimproved 666.
Button shows 34567 of spades for the pat STRAIGHT FLUSH.
We were all drawing dead and both UTG and BB are eliminated.

I'm down about 2.5 to 1 in chips, manage to crawl back to even at one point before eventually finishing second in a rather lenghty HU duel. The penultimate hand (which crippled me) was me losing queens up to kings up.

[bigpooch]

Well, the button misplayed his hand: he should not have
pushed to get you to overcall! Then, he would have had a
much easier time to beat you in the ensuing heads up match
(I take it that you would have called if the button didn't
move all-in).

[TheShootah]

Damn that is sick...although bigpooch has a good pt.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to Shootah and BigPooch for their responses. I appreciate Pooch's thought process in approximating the equity, even with some pertinent details missing. I don't have the hand history available, so everything is from memory.

The event was pot-limit (it was at 24h). I believe the blinds were 500/1000 (might have been 800/1500). A rough guess of stack sizes were: me 22K, button 20K, BB 12K, UTG 2K. My other cards with my QQQ were low-don't recall exactly, but certainly not aces or faces.

I ended up folding, feeling pretty sure that I would be drawing uphill against at least one and maybe two pat hands. I obviously didn't have a chance to do the calculations to estimate equity, but my instinct told me that it was better with a fold.

Here's what happened-one of the most AMAZING hands I've seen.
UTG draws one, Button raps pat, BB draws two.
UTG shows down AAKKx, failing to improve aces up.
BB shows down unimproved 666.
Button shows 34567 of spades for the pat STRAIGHT FLUSH.
We were all drawing dead and both UTG and BB are eliminated.

I'm down about 2.5 to 1 in chips, manage to crawl back to even at one point before eventually finishing second in a rather lenghty HU duel. The penultimate hand (which crippled me) was me losing queens up to kings up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I nominate this as insane hand of the week.

[TheShootah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to Shootah and BigPooch for their responses. I appreciate Pooch's thought process in approximating the equity, even with some pertinent details missing. I don't have the hand history available, so everything is from memory.

The event was pot-limit (it was at 24h). I believe the blinds were 500/1000 (might have been 800/1500). A rough guess of stack sizes were: me 22K, button 20K, BB 12K, UTG 2K. My other cards with my QQQ were low-don't recall exactly, but certainly not aces or faces.

I ended up folding, feeling pretty sure that I would be drawing uphill against at least one and maybe two pat hands. I obviously didn't have a chance to do the calculations to estimate equity, but my instinct told me that it was better with a fold.

Here's what happened-one of the most AMAZING hands I've seen.
UTG draws one, Button raps pat, BB draws two.
UTG shows down AAKKx, failing to improve aces up.
BB shows down unimproved 666.
Button shows 34567 of spades for the pat STRAIGHT FLUSH.
We were all drawing dead and both UTG and BB are eliminated.

I'm down about 2.5 to 1 in chips, manage to crawl back to even at one point before eventually finishing second in a rather lenghty HU duel. The penultimate hand (which crippled me) was me losing queens up to kings up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I nominate this as insane hand of the week.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DOMIT]

Other factors that would come into play for me, would be:

- the size of the pot
- how much I would of had to call -- even knowing that I'm prolly up against a pat hand..just not knowing that I'm drawing dead [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
- and, how much I'm "in" on the tournament (you did say this was a rebuy event)

If I'm not in for much ( say < 100), I'd prolly go for the scooper, since I had a good profit already having 3rd; additionally, if you reraised, then you are already invested in the pot for so much of your stack.

If I had more rebuys (in for > 100), than I definitelly would fold, going the 'safe' route, putting button on pat and knocking the other 2 out; thereby conserving my chips for the win after getting HU.

Glad to see you made the correct decision.. I'm not sure that I could have folded high trips like that [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Sounds like you did a great job in the comeback, even if you still came in 2nd.. like you did a great job. Congrats on the 2nd finish! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]