AK: Check through the river?

[JKetzer]

So far GT+ stats are showing MP2 to be tightish (~25% VPIP) and passive over about 30 hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero...

If he's calling on a flush draw and I bet, then I figure he's probably going to fold. If he's calling down with a weaker ace, then he's probably going to pay me off. If he had KQ, then he's trying to check-raise another bet out of me.

Fire off one more value bet, or just check it through?

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
Fire off one more value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Shillx]

I highly doubt that he has KQ here. He might have a flush draw and fold but that doesn't hurt you. Also, you don't have to show your hand which is always nice. When you make a "value" bet on the river it will usually have much less EV then 1 BB. So in this spot you might be expecting to get .2 BB of value by betting.

Brad

[Thriller]

This is a spot where GT's post flop raise number can be very useful. If he hasn't been raising post flop, bet it out. If you get the CR back to you, chalk it up to a good move and a good catch on his part.

I'd bet, but I'm still learning. I figure you've already made money long term by having him call your turn bet. If he has KQ, he has to figure on only having 4 outs; he didn't have the odds to call at 5.75:1. Is my math/odds calc right?