Top pair, open ended, 3 way

[Oneiros]

OK, $1/$2 NL cash game, 9 handed & live card room.
Hero has about $205 in the CO, UTG+1 has $200 and CO - 1 (I think, maybe CO - 2) has about $250.

Hero has KQ. Action to me is appx. limp, limp, fold, fold, limp, limp putting ~$11 in the pot. Hero raises to $15 (which is debatable with KQ I know, but I have position and want to thin the crowd a bit, and that's not the issue at hand), Button and blinds fold, 2 of the limpers call. Pot ~= $51.

Flop comes QJT, giving hero top pair 2nd kicker and open ended draw. UTG+1 bets $15, CO-1 calls $15, pot is now ~$81. Action to hero.

WWYD? I'm seeing this poll option below, and so while I'd obviously like thoughts we'll try this out. I'll assume folding is not the call here, though feel free to argue that way.

[PoBoy321]

I'll raise 1/2-3/4 of the pot. It's doubtful that you have the best hand but you have a ton of draws and if it can get JT to check to you on the turn, I want to raise.

[Riposte]

I don't think you can really protect your hand on this flop. And I'd also hate to be reraised. I'd be looking for a 9 or an Ace to fall on the turn or river. I'll just call here.

[stu-unger]

i raise only if i think it gets me a free card/cheap showdown. if i dont think i can do this i like a call and re assess on the turn.

hmm... looks like I'm the only one to vote all-in [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I'd raise to 1/2-3/4 pot, (probably closer to 1/2,) in an attempt to make it heads up, and see how it develops from there.

Call it...it's very likely you're behind to two pair.

Damn, some one bets less than a third of a the pot, another calls, and you guys give some one credit for two pair or straight? I was under the impression that the level of play live is pretty low....

Besides, we still have at least 11 outs against two pair, maybe 13

Raise 3/4 pot, your giving them too much credit.

[Oneiros]

I actually don't see how to access the poll results without voting myself, but some good responses, not sure 100% if I agree, but I lean toward call or all in myself, figuring any raise less substantial but proportional to the pot will leave me more or less pot committed, and clearly if I can take it down now I want to. Also, because I see it having a 60-75% chance of getting about half the hands that are ahead of me right now to fold. I did an analysis like what Dan Harrington discusses in HoH-II, but using pokerstove to calculate equity for the range of hands (and I'm 99% sure stove does it a way Harrington would approve).

I started by making a list of realistic holdings I'm ahead of and one I'm behind, and noted (correct me if I'm wrong anywhere) how many ways they could have each based on cards seen:
Ahead of-
<ul type="square"> [*]AJ (12 possible)[*]AT (12 possible)[*]A9 (16 possible)[*]A8 (16 possible)[*]KJ (9 possible)[*]KT (9 possible)[*]99 (6 possible)[/list]That's 80 possible holdings I'm ahead of...

Behind-
<ul type="square"> [*]AA (6 possible)[*]KK (3 possible)[*]QQ (1 possible)[*]JJ (3 possible)[*]TT (3 possible)[*]QJ (6 possible)[*]QT (6 possible)[*]JT (6 possible)[*]AK (9 possible)[*]AQ (9 possible)[/list]That's 52 hands I need to catch up to., about 40% of the total hands out there.

All in against one of these hands, on average I'm 60% to win if called, but of course many I'm ahead of will fold fair percentage, and I think many I'm currently behind may too given the board, most likely QT, JT and AQ, and a fair chance for QJ too. That's 21-27 of the 52 hands, nearly half, and if I'm called by them or better hands, i'm 35% or better to win against most, and drawing dead to none. Against one of the hands I'm ahead, average equity is 80% heads up, 70% against both. The one's I'm behind, 30% equity on average, against all of them 60% avg equity. So I'm very tempted by the all in, but given position calling may be better, I dunno, but its such a strong hand and strong draw, seems like I should play strong... maybe pot raise is stronger though.