Turn Line

GTSamIAm · #1 09-07-2005, 03:52 PM

Usually this turn donkbet means a weak top pair. I have a suspicion the raiser is semibluffing a draw. I can't reasonably play this, though, can I?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP3 raises, Hero...

WSOP Bound · #2 09-07-2005, 04:04 PM

I think I would have to just give up here. MP3s play looks like a straight, but 47/79 just don't seem like reasonable hands even for a fish. 88 is possible as well. UTG worries me a bit more. He led the flop into the preflop raiser, which tells me he likes his hand in the first place. You raise, he calls and then proceeds to blast another one in on the turn. I can think of a couple of explanations for that, but none of them add up to you being ahead of either of them much less both.

@bsolute_luck · #3 09-07-2005, 04:09 PM

you have UTG beat. MP3 we have to think about.

GTSamIAm · #4 09-07-2005, 04:12 PM

My thoughts exactly. If UTG had me beat, he would have check/raised the turn. But can I call/call? The odds MP's giving me suck balls.

teajay · #5 09-07-2005, 04:24 PM

I'd call.

Maybe I'm too passive here. I could see someone with a weak K and another with a draw here. But it's also possible there is a straight out there.

milesdyson · #6 09-07-2005, 04:25 PM

MP3's raise is almost always two pair or better (your suspicion that it is a semi-bluff raise is results-oriented i bet). there's a good chance you're drawing dead here to a set or a straight, you're not getting the right price to draw to 5 outs, there's a chance this gets 3-bet behind you, and you're going to pay off one more on the river even if you don't improve. fold.

WSOP Bound · #7 09-07-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you have UTG beat. MP3 we have to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly don't think that it's impossible that that is true, but what do you put UTG on that you beat? The only thing that I can think of is that he is a thinking player who has a vulnerable king and doesn't want to allow a free card to the flush draw(s). Even once you disregard him what can you put MP3 on that you beat?

@bsolute_luck · #8 09-07-2005, 04:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts exactly. If UTG had me beat, he would have check/raised the turn. But can I call/call? The odds MP's giving me suck balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, at this point i have to think if you're hand is good. assuming UTG calls (which he probably will) and figuring you call most cards on the river and it goes:

UTG checks, mp3 bets, hero calls, UTG calls. you're getting 4.5:1 meaning he has to be playing A6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] suited or semi-bluffing 7 times out of 10 to call this turn and river profitably (assuming we call the river)

now to the river: this is difficult because the semi-bluff is very good on the turn as if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, we don't know which one he was betting or maybe he had 3 of a kind and we're dead. so cards we have to maybe dodge (if he's semi-bluffing): Aces, 7s, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s, and [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s.

we only have to be wrong 3 times out of 10 to be break even. how 'bout this line:

3-bet, fold to a cap, check behind on the river UI (that includes a K or Q of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

i don't like calling, i'd like to try and get UTG out of there, plus i think we may have him beat, so if he calls that's more dead money anyways. this might be spewing though, so i'm still thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

GTSamIAm · #9 09-07-2005, 08:02 PM

Actually, I thought the turn raiser was semibluffing when I played the hand. It's like sometimes when you hope they're full of [censored] and can't believe yourself. But the odds weren't good and I could have gotten caught in crossifre. [censored] turn donkbets. Actually, the raiser had a king with the flush draw he made on the turn. Tricky.

@bsolute_luck · #10 09-07-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I thought the turn raiser was semibluffing when I played the hand. It's like sometimes when you hope they're full of [censored] and can't believe yourself. But the odds weren't good and I could have gotten caught in crossifre. [censored] turn donkbets. Actually, the raiser had a king with the flush draw he made on the turn. Tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

so did you go to showdown? what was the river card? what did you do on this turn/river?