Party 10/20: KJ on Ace high board.

[Jeff W]

BB is 49/10/1.9 over 129 hands.

Party 10/20 (5 handed)

Preflop: Josh is UTG with Jc, Ks.
Josh raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8d, 8h, 4d (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Josh calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) As (2 players)
BB bets, Josh calls.

[balkii]

if you are planning on calling this down i think a turn raise is a MUCH better use of 2 BBs. people dont fold pairs very often but when you raise PF, just call on the flop, and raise when an A hits on the turn its a pretty convincing line and I know I have made loose players fold pairs in such a manner.

[juggernaut]

This hand gets more complex the longer I look at it. My first reaction was, uhmm, what the hell are you doing? But BB betting into you on the flop gives a showdown some appeal.

Overall, it would take a solid read for me to continue here. I would want evidence that BB plays his draws aggressively, or evidence that he is maniacal and possibly salivating over the paired board.

If you’ve decided to continue, the question becomes….raise or call.

Against a maniac, I lean towards calling: getting semi-bluffed 3-betted is disastrous, and he’ll most likely continue to bet on the river with nada.

Against a laggy type, I lean towards raising: smaller chance of getting 3-bet, he might not bet the river with his draw, folding equity towards hands like 55 or K4.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are planning on calling this down i think a turn raise is a MUCH better use of 2 BBs. people dont fold pairs very often but when you raise PF, just call on the flop, and raise when an A hits on the turn its a pretty convincing line and I know I have made loose players fold pairs in such a manner.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely, but another point. Often, even if BB doesn't fold to the turn raise with his 4, you will have 14 outs on the river meaning these opponents will likely fold to a bet when a K,Q,J,T hits on the river. Again, this is VERY opponent specific. Who's the opponent?

___1___

[Buck_65]

Are you folding if the river isn't a K, J, or A? I like this plan more than semi-bluff raising the turn. I don't think villain is folding a pair often enough for this play to show a profit. Paying 2 BB to showdown king high is not a winning strategy.

[Jeff W]

I didn't play the hand, but if I did I would call any river card having played the flop and turn thusly.

[obsidian]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are planning on calling this down i think a turn raise is a MUCH better use of 2 BBs. people dont fold pairs very often but when you raise PF, just call on the flop, and raise when an A hits on the turn its a pretty convincing line and I know I have made loose players fold pairs in such a manner.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this. Flop donk bets like that are many time flush draws. I also raise the turn and take a free showdown if he calls.

[aba20]

What if the guy has the nut flush draw?

[cartman]

If we rule out an 8 for our opponent, this narrows his possible holdings on the flop to a pair, Ace high, a diamond draw, a gutshot, a pure bluff.

Against Ace high on the flop (now top pair), we have 0 outs.
Against flopped pairs lower than 8's we have 9 outs. Against pocket pairs higher than 8's we have 6 outs. Against most diamond draws we have 31 outs (because he has 15 against us). Against gutshots we have 36 outs (because he has 10 against us). Against most pure bluffs we have 30 outs (because he has 6 against us).

If we assume that we will either win or lose one big bet on the river (except for the few times that he checks and we check because the river wasn't a K, J, or an A), then we are getting 6 to 2 odds on a call down. To justify this we must win the pot 2 out of 8 times, or 25%. That means we need to have, on average, 11.5 outs.

So given that he bet the flop what percent of the time do we think he had?:

A high (0 outs)
Pair <8's (9 outs)
Pair >8's (6 outs)
Diamond draw (31 outs)
gutshot (36 outs)

I think I remember calculating that, on a non-paired board with a possible flush AND straight draw, a player who will bet any pair or any draw will have a pair about 70% and a draw about 30%. With just a straight draw OR a flush draw possible, the same player will have a pair about 80% and a draw about 20%.

The board being paired would skew these somewhat toward draws but make betting with A high a real possibility also.

I don't know how to properly weight these, but calling down looks more compelling than it did on first glance.



But is it compelling enough?

If you call the turn, can you really call the river if a diamond hits?



Cartman

[ISF]

I think its fine, this donk bet is a complete bluff of FD so often I think a call down is likely +EV. Though if a diamond in the playing zone like Qd comes off on the river a fold might be inorder.