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#1
12-27-2005, 01:44 PM
 BPA234 Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 21
A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

I have basic math skills. But, I definitely lack the ed. to come up with a formula to guide rebuy purchases. Please note, this is not a strategy request. I am looking for a specific formula that would offer a "general guideline" to purchases based on the following: Buy-In,Rebuy Amount, Field, Prize Pool. Possibly, players presumed advantage over field, historical success rate. Any other factors I am not thinking of???

Some examples:

10+1 rebuy with a field of 1,100, 1st place prize of 12k, field advantage of 70%, historical cashes.

100+9 rebuy with a field of 145, 1st place average 13,000, 20% field advantage, historical cashes.

I think there is a sensible formula to be found. What got me thinking about this was playing a 10 rebuy and spending \$71 (1-entry 5 rebuys 1 addon) with a very weak field (weak A's calling early pos all-ins etc.) Vs. spending the equivalent 100 plus9 of entry/rebuys/addon and then playing against a smaller, yet much stronger field.

There may be mittigating factors that prevent the creation of an equation. I apologize in advance if that is the case. But, I remain optimistic that there may be a way.

Thank you for any help you may be able to offer.
#2
12-27-2005, 02:28 PM
 Exitonly Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 3
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

Er. maybe i'm slow this morning, but i don't get what you want the formula to solve/show.
#3
12-27-2005, 03:09 PM
 IHateKeithSmart Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: check folding the nuts Posts: 182
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

I'm also a bit of a mathie but am also a little confused. The variable is going to be estimated field advantage, right? Slide er up and down and see what kind of rebuy investment you should/can justify (or hit optimally)? These are the two unknowns, I think for your historical success rate you'd want to use general MTT roi% b/c I don't think anyone can get near enough to significant numbers within a specific buyin (or even total MTTs played). Bleh, just some more thoughts. Where is sirio when you need him.
#4
12-27-2005, 03:17 PM
 Exitonly Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 3
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[ QUOTE ]
see what kind of rebuy investment you should/can justify

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure i won't be able to clearly say this, but each rebuy investment shouold be viewed independantly, so whatever your 'total investment' is, shouldn't mean crap. And if it was right for you to buyin in the first place, unnless it's a crazy turbo, it would be right for you to rebuy when you go broke.

Still confused as to what the question is.
#5
12-27-2005, 03:47 PM
 jcm4ccc Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 116
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

This is probably heresy on these boards, but I think logically you maximize your ROI (assuming you are a winning player) by never rebuying when you go broke during a rebuy.

Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all. Now let's say you have only \$31 left in your account. Are you better off spending \$20 to rebuy now (with an extra \$10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow? Clearly, you are better off waiting until tomorrow, since you will have 60 minutes to build your stack tomorrow, as opposed to only 45 minutes today.

My point is that I often hear that you should not play these events unless you can rebuy, which I think is wrong. If you are short on funds and want to play and time is not a factor, then allocating \$31 per tournament (original buy-in, rebuy at start, add-on at end of hour) seems to me to be a fine strategy (assuming you don't play more conservatively during the rebuy period because you are afraid of busting out).

However, if you are trying to maximize your amount of winnings per day (as opposed to maximizing your ROI), then of course you will want to rebuy when you go broke.
#6
12-27-2005, 03:53 PM
 ZBTHorton Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 56
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably heresy on these boards, but I think logically you maximize your ROI (assuming you are a winning player) by never rebuying when you go broke during a rebuy.

Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all. Now let's say you have only \$31 left in your account. Are you better off spending \$20 to rebuy now (with an extra \$10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow? Clearly, you are better off waiting until tomorrow, since you will have 60 minutes to build your stack tomorrow, as opposed to only 45 minutes today.

My point is that I often hear that you should not play these events unless you can rebuy, which I think is wrong. If you are short on funds and want to play and time is not a factor, then allocating \$31 per tournament (original buy-in, rebuy at start, add-on at end of hour) seems to me to be a fine strategy (assuming you don't play more conservatively during the rebuy period because you are afraid of busting out).

However, if you are trying to maximize your amount of winnings per day (as opposed to maximizing your ROI), then of course you will want to rebuy when you go broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree.

The point of rebuys, and the best way to maximize your ROI is by trying to accumulate chips.

If you go all in for 3K 10 minutes into a rebuy, I bet you get two callers w/ decent hands. Your AK is no longer a favorite, but it was probably +EV to push it anyway.

Why would you not continue to play and take +EV situations? It doesn't take 45 minutes to build a stack in the 11r...
#7
12-27-2005, 04:02 PM
 jcm4ccc Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 116
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[ QUOTE ]
If you go all in for 3K 10 minutes into a rebuy, I bet you get two callers w/ decent hands. Your AK is no longer a favorite, but it was probably +EV to push it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ] I completely agree and would push AK everytime in this situation, regardless as to whether I intend to rebuy or not.

[ QUOTE ]

Why would you not continue to play and take +EV situations? It doesn't take 45 minutes to build a stack in the 11r...

[/ QUOTE ] My point is that you can build a bigger stack with 60 minutes. So I still say you are maximizing your ROI by not rebuying. But maximizing ROI is not always the best goal.
#8
12-27-2005, 04:12 PM
 BPA234 Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 21
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

Sorry if my post is not clear. I'm lookig for a formula that could be used to guide the investment. For example, a player like Ozzy87/BigSlick789 could rebuy 20x in the 10+1 for 200 and likely show a very healthy return on his investment.

Whereas the same player, with all due respect, rebuying @ that same rate, will likely show a substantial loss in 100 +9.

I am hoping to be able to plug in the data into an excel sheet and come up with a general guide line to rebuy purchases. Any clearer now??? Please let me know. T
#9
12-27-2005, 04:19 PM
 Hendricks433 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Brighton, Michigan Posts: 192
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all.Now let's say you have only \$31 left in your account . Are you better off spending \$20 to rebuy now (with an extra \$10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a bad statement IMO. If you only have \$50 in your account you should not be playing rebuys. I also think your decisions in tournaments shouldnt be made based on your BR. The money you buy in with shouldnt matter, Dont play over your BR.
#10
12-27-2005, 04:25 PM
 jcm4ccc Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 116
Re: A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all.Now let's say you have only \$31 left in your account . Are you better off spending \$20 to rebuy now (with an extra \$10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a bad statement IMO. If you only have \$50 in your account you should not be playing rebuys. I also think your decisions in tournaments shouldnt be made based on your BR. The money you buy in with shouldnt matter, Dont play over your BR.

[/ QUOTE ] Of course you want to stay within your bankroll. It was only an example.

Here's something more concrete. The general consensus seems to be that you should have 100X buy-in. So if you have a \$3100 bankroll and want to play the rebuys, then smart bankroll management would be to not allow yourself to rebuy beyond the first rebuy at the beginning of the tournament.

My only point is that it is wrong to say that you should not play the rebuys if you are not planning on rebuying. Logically, you maximize your ROI by never rebuying.

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