Down to 4, question from a cash game player

[swolfe]

The card room I've been playing at a lot hosted a $3K freeroll today. I don't play many tournaments so thinking beyond the current hand is new to me. There were about 25 people to start.

My question has to do with this hand:

Blinds T2K/T4K
UTG - T8K
Button - T40K
SB - T12K
BB (Hero) - T42K

UTG shoves, nitty old guy on button says "call...I mean, raise." and is held to a call. I've only seen him raise AA/KK/AK all day. I suspect a strong holding. SB folds.

I look down to find Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I shove. Standard?

Or should I have folded or in some other way played it cautiously since UTG is probably going out now and SB will be going out in the next couple of hands.

1st paid $1,200
2nd paid $800
3rd paid $500
4th paid $300

[Exitonly]

there are only 5 people left in the tournament? or 25?

[jusander]

4 people left if I understood right.

[Lloyd]

It would take an awfully good read to put him on AA-KK/AK. 4-handed QQ is a very strong hand and I think my default would be to push. Remember if you push and he does have AA, and both you and the shortstack bust out, you *should* get 3rd place because you started the hand with more chips. If you trust your read then I guess a call is okay and you can see what the flop brings and perhaps check it down.

[swolfe]

yeah, only 4 players left, and yes, obviously 4-handed queens is a monster. the question is: should i take a chance and push here, or should i have coasted into heads up, then destroy the old guy with my awesome heads up play?

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, only 4 players left, and yes, obviously 4-handed queens is a monster. the question is: should i take a chance and push here, or should i have coasted into heads up, then destroy the old guy with my awesome heads up play?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a very interesting question. I have laid down jacks and even queens once or twice to players I only have seen raise premiums, and it has always been the correct decision. (Thank you PAHud) If he's one of those players that ONLY raises QQ+ and AK, you should fold it and just wait for a better spot. Like Steve Dannenman says "folding to a raise is only a small mistake". Can't lose money you don't put into the pot, and often your first instinct is right.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3659 % 45.79% 01.58% { QQ }
Hand 2: 52.6341 % 51.06% 01.58% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

We are behind to his range even if you add pocket jacks. I see no reason to flip for most of your stack, as he will probably be pushing you on any flop unless it completely misses his AK or JJ.

Steve

[Rduke55]

I can't imagine that he only raises those hands when you are 4 handed.

[swolfe]

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I can't imagine that he only raises those hands when you are 4 handed.

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he seriously sucked and didn't really know what he was doing. he got to the final table by folding pretty much everything, then he got his stack when he went all-in for 7K (at the 1K/2K level) and got called in 3 spots...his AA held up by rivering a board pair for a higher two pair.

anyway, thinking about this hand later, i could have folded and pretty much guaranteed at least 2nd or pushed which would guarantee 1st if i win and 3rd if i lose. if heads up, i feel confident that i could win, so does it make sense to "gamble"?

everybody so far has been focusing on the fact that i have queens and that i don't "know" that the old guy has a good hand. that's all well and good, but the play if this were a cash game with the same stacks and players would be a push. what i'm interested in is thinking about the hand from the perspective of the tournament as a whole.

let's say i fold and get the following:
1st 45% * 1200 = 540
2nd 45% * 800 = 360
3rd 10% * 500 = 50
value of folding = 950

say i push and win
1st 90% * 1200 = 1080
2nd 8% * 800 = 64
3rd 2% * 500 = 10
value of pushing and winning = 1154

pushing and losing
1st 0% = 0
2nd 2% * 800 = 40
3rd 98% * 500 = 490
value of pushing and losing = 530

how much of a favorite do i have to be to push to make that more profitable than folding? X = win %

1154X + (1-X)530 = 950
1154X - 530X = 950 - 530
624X = 420
X = .67

So I should be confident that I'll win 2/3rds of the time that I push to make pushing correct.

The methodology is fine (I didn't review your numbers).

This is assuming Button wins 100% of the time vs SS.

That payout is really linear and may be enough to tilt this to a call.. but probably just push.

Did you actually have a read of AA/KK/AK? I guess there are some players like that, but it just seems so unlikely.