"solid" players have NO concept of bubble play

[curtains]

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I fold this PF based on BB's and UTG's stacks. I'd rather deal with him on my own terms and not in pushbot mode.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Any 2 are getting pushed here. This is a winfall for the hero.

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You may be correct, I just don't think a push here with level 6 blinds is that much of a winfall. Now if the stacks were different, I could see it. Granted, the BB is only calling with AA or maybe KK, but I'd much rather push any two on level 7 or higher on the bubble.

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I dont like pushing at all either. Id rather take a chance that the BB wont mess with me, and just make it 550-600. Most of the time they won't have the balls with this guy sitting there with 100 chips. Moving allin is very dangerous, you dont know what these guys are capable of.

[FlyWf]

It's always a bad push when you've got 18 BB(and the BB has 15BB). It's especially a bad push when you are against bad players. How does this hand turn out if it's BB who wakes up with 55 or KTo or A3s or any of the other hands they'll idiotically call with? Pretty freaking bad for you.

[BadMongo]

I agree, this is a bad push.

This is NOT proper bubble play - not at the the 22s. People just can't lay down hands at this level. If you do an ICM analysis of this and similar situations (including proper calling ranges for this level) you'll find that a push like this is very -$EV.

You have to adjust your play based on how the other players WILL play, not how they SHOULD play.

[tigerite]

I actually would just raise here like curtains suggests to some amount (well any really) whereby calling an SB push would be a no brainer.

[tigerite]

And anyway, some pushes work out.

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC)


Chip Counts:
Button: 1620 Chips
SB: 720 Chips
BB: 3040 Chips
<font color="red">Hero: 4620 Chips</font>

Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
Hero is All-In, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="blue">SB folds</font>, BB is All-In

(2 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 7810 Chips )


(2 players) TURN: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 7810 Chips )


(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 7810 Chips )


Final Pot:7810 Chips


BB shows:AdAc,a pair of aces

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[RoyalLance]

Easy fold. With the 100 chipper to be all in next hand you had no reason to gamble your chip lead when you as SO close to cashing, and in position for a win. You should consider yourself lucky to survive for first IMO.

[tigerite]

Wow, just really. You have no idea about ICM do you?

[Shillx]

Okay well it is easy to say "bad push" or "you are wrong", but you didn't come up with a alternate pushing range here.

The nice thing about pushing every hand is that the caller can't win by picking any strategy. That is not to say that you always win by pushing any 2, but at least the caller is in a -EV spot no matter what he decides to call with.

All pushing ranges have their problems. Yeah you can push 88+/AT+ and be certain that it is +EV no matter what they call with, but those hands don't just fall into your lap. You are going to get run over if you take the "don't make any pushes that could be -EV" road.

There is a lot of math to back up the 100% shove theory. But since you don't seem to like it, what do you suggest we shove here?

[ZeroPointMachine]

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Wow, just really. You have no idea about ICM do you?

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Run the numbers before you jump too quick.

You can't assume the average 22er knows enough to only call with AA/KK ever.

On the uber-tight for 22 player range of TT+,AQs+,AKo this is +.5%. This is not a hugely +EV spot unless you can put the other big stack on a really tight range. Even with SB/BB on a range of AA/KK only this is +.8%. The blinds are too small. There will be much better spots in this tourney if you pass this one up.

[tigerite]

Well the BB won't call with that kind of range, but anyway I already said I wouldn't push here, but folding is surely wrong, raise and play some poker if called/re-raise all-in if SB pushes and BB calls.