Time to get busy? PLO100 pair, wrap, and weak F draw vs LAG and rock

[bholdr]

PLO100 7 players at table

In EP, with about 90BB, UTG and folds and i limp with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], there was a caller or two, and the LAG button (200+BBs) raises pot to $5, i call, so does a LP limper who i read as skilled but rock-ish.

Now, i think i have some good reads on these players, which affects my plays here: The raiser, who's a regular in the game, is a classic LAG- and pretty good. He plays about 50% of his hands, raises maybe 15% of 'em PF- on steals, he's tricky, is concious of and uses his position, bluffs a bit too much, but not stupidly or at random, and so on. He can make tough laydowns. He could have anyhing, basicly, but he respects and fears me (i think). The rock plays standard flop-nuts-bet-pot PLO, he'll draw with the right odds and even bet some strong draws, but is generally reeeeeaaaally passive. his call here likely means a very big hand.

pot is $15 to the flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which gives me a weak flush draw, a mini-wrap, and a small pair, but there's that ace out there...


so i check the flop. LP Rock bets $5, LAG bets pot $20, action back to me...

do i.... call and draw? re-pot it, try to push out the rock and race HU against the LAG? fold, since i'm possibly dominated, maybe drawing thin?


considering my reads, poor position, and big ol draw... what's my play?

First, shouldn't a pot bet from the LAG be $30? If so, you can put $110 in here (do you have 90 BBlinds or 90 Bbets?).

No expert here. I say pot it to make the rock fold and either collect the pot now or have enough equity if LAG calls. I wouldn't even hesitate, especially since you have 2 str8 flush outs and one of the boat outs. The only 2 hands to fear are AAxx suited in diamonds and T986 suited in diamonds. It might happen, but that's paranoia three handed.

[BluffTHIS!]

You want all the money in the middle. You would rather play this headsup to avoid straight splits, and if you manage to knock out a higher flush draw then you have accomplished something important. If not, your cards lessen his flush possibilities significantly, especially if he doesn't have 1 of your straight flush outs in his hand. Another reason to get allin preflop here, is that the rock didn't reraise preflop making trip aces less likely though not improbable. So if you can knock him off top 2 of A7, and be left alone with the lag who might only have a draw, then your pair greatly increases your equity as well (or you might win it right there). Plus if the rock won't laydown and does indeed only have A7, then you would hate to fold the turn when the flush gets there fearing a bigger one or the board pairs 5s and get pushed off a draw that isn't in fact dead.

[dibbs]

Im sleep deprived, but are you reading rock as AA? If he's a weak-smart player this seems like a weak ass AAxx no?

[Wheatsauce]

If you trust your read on the rock, then he would have bet the pot on the flop if he had AA, not 1/3 pot, and he would almost certainly fold to a re-pot by you. Either winning it here or getting heads up with the LAG are good things IMO, so I would re-pot.

[bholdr]

Thanks for the responses- i aggree. i re-potted it in an attempt to force out the rock and run a big draw against the LAG's hand... unfourtunatly, he had a little straight draw and a nut F draw... enough to call, appearently, and the flush came.

just makin' sure i wasn't way off...