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  #11  
Old 10-06-2005, 10:18 AM
BottlesOf BottlesOf is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

[ QUOTE ]

Is there one person out there who can make a lucid case for folding here ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably amulet.
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  #12  
Old 10-06-2005, 10:33 AM
sfer sfer is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it is an easy fold.
You are only invested for $3 and it is extremely unlikely that you can win the hand. Think of it this way; It is very likely that a couple of the players have better PPs and even if the are all complete morons you know that the others have suited cards and if the game is loose no one is folding until the river. So you can call miss your 3 and fold (losing an additional $9) or hit your 3 and lose a big pot.


IMO

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Do not follow this advice.

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I would love to see this played out in a hand simulator. I think the parameters should be that 2 other players have a bigger PP and 3 players have suited connectors and the rest can have random cards.
Or as a second sample maybe just give the rest of them random cards.

The key here is that even though you are getting the right pot odds to call for trips. I don't think trips wins it and I don't see getting the right odds for quads. The game is loose and with that much money in the pot I don’t see many players laying down their hand if the catch even a little piece of it on the flop,turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you can make two different straight flushes.
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  #13  
Old 10-06-2005, 10:48 AM
noggindoc noggindoc is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .



[/ QUOTE ]and I don't see getting the right odds for quads.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol
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  #14  
Old 10-06-2005, 11:27 AM
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

When it gets back to you, there are 21 bets in the pot, and it costs you 3 more (based on your analysis) to play. You easily get odds to flop your set. Yes, you will not always win when you do, but the overlay for you to call is there, as the pot will be huge when you take it down. If this was me, I would cap it and represent AA-KK. Since you will be calling a cap anyways, you might as well do it yourself.

EDIT: because everyone will be calling your cap, your odds for this street are 10.67:1. Ridiculous.
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  #15  
Old 10-06-2005, 12:02 PM
Buz Buz is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

I think it is very rare to have all these callers to a raise and a re-raise. You would "routinely" see one or no callers facing 2 bets and likely three. With all those callers, you have to assume there is one or two bigger pocket pairs out there. That reduces your pot odds tremendously.

The "lucid argument for folding" is that you'll miss the flop and fold 88% of the time and lose a big pot to Straights, Flushes and bigger Sets 25% of the time you hit your set. This only leaves you with about 9% to work with to justify calling two more bets.

If you go to the odds calculator at Cardplayer.com you can put in five players (max) and if you put in your 33 against an AK, QQ, JTs and 67s, you would find that you are only 16% to win. It's worse if there is another pair out there (14%). The only time you are the favorite is when they all hold each other's cards - hey, it happens!

I think there are other hands that can give you a much better expected value. Of course, many poker players are action junkies and find a lot of value in the thrill of trying to buck the odds and win a big pot. These, obviously, are the players you want at your table.
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  #16  
Old 10-06-2005, 12:30 PM
SheridanCat SheridanCat is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

[ QUOTE ]

If you go to the odds calculator at Cardplayer.com you can put in five players (max) and if you put in your 33 against an AK, QQ, JTs and 67s, you would find that you are only 16% to win. It's worse if there is another pair out there (14%). The only time you are the favorite is when they all hold each other's cards - hey, it happens!


[/ QUOTE ]

The whole question revolves around you hitting your set. You are getting proper odds to call preflop. Once you make your set on the flop, you are a favorite to win the hand against this lineup you just specified. If the flop comes monotone and makes the suited hand a flush, then you're a dog. Otherwise you're a favorite to take down a giant pot.

Regards,

T
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  #17  
Old 10-06-2005, 12:32 PM
crunchy1 crunchy1 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

[ QUOTE ]
With 8 people in, I am definitely calling. I would think about capping it myself and then just call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like a call here too. Capping it here would be bad given your relative position to the PFR(s). You've got a great chance to trap the field for multiple bets after the flop.
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  #18  
Old 10-06-2005, 12:40 PM
Buz Buz is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

There's no question that this is a call if you can see the flop cheap. This question is, "Is it a good bet if you know it will cost you four bets to see the flop?"
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  #19  
Old 10-06-2005, 01:01 PM
James282 James282 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

[ QUOTE ]
There's no question that this is a call if you can see the flop cheap. This question is, "Is it a good bet if you know it will cost you four bets to see the flop?"

[/ QUOTE ]

"The answer is, 'Yes.'"
-James
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  #20  
Old 10-06-2005, 01:03 PM
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Default Re: I\'m sorry but I just have to ask . . .

This is my first post here, so take what i say with a grain of salt.

[ QUOTE ]
If you go to the odds calculator at Cardplayer.com you can put in five players (max) and if you put in your 33 against an AK, QQ, JTs and 67s, you would find that you are only 16% to win. It's worse if there is another pair out there (14%). The only time you are the favorite is when they all hold each other's cards - hey, it happens!


[/ QUOTE ]

By the numbers you are giving you justified a call. You are getting at the bare minimum 8-1 odds to play this hand. Even 14% is ~7-1 odds, so you are loosing money by not calling here.

[ QUOTE ]

I think there are other hands that can give you a much better expected value. Of course, many poker players are action junkies and find a lot of value in the thrill of trying to buck the odds and win a big pot. These, obviously, are the players you want at your table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are worrying to much about if you are "ahead" of other players, from the numbers you mentioned here, you are getting the pot odds.
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