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  #1  
Old 07-31-2005, 08:00 PM
deadmoney98 deadmoney98 is offline
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Default live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

1-2 NL @ Caesar's Atlantic City
Villain is UTG and has $290 and is not an awful player, but seems to be on tilt from previously losing her stack and catching some attitude afterwards.

Hero is MP and covers slightly (~350) and is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:
Villain opens for 15, Hero calls, SB (shortstacked donkey) calls.

Flop ($45) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, Villain bets $100, Hero???


An important read...Hero asks villain how much she has left (175) after which she stares him down and holds her chips out over the pot like she is ready to drop them in for five full minutes while Hero thinks. FWIW, she only had green ($25) chips and I was not at all concerned about SB, but I haved no real reason for that. I am curious what you would do without that read also.
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Old 07-31-2005, 08:59 PM
ajmargarine ajmargarine is offline
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Default Re: live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

The most important thing about the read is that you are going to have to play this hand for almost all your chips if you call here (or raise).

Most likely villian holdings are a set, two pair, or a non-nut flush. All of which you are way behind. Also probable is an ace and a club, in which case she is a little worse than even money to hit her flush by the river. An ace with the K of clubs is a likely possibility there, which gives you no chance to win the pot. Also, she could have a straight flush draw, and she is even money to hit that.

Plus, there's the chance that the SB could come to life with a hand of his own. It all adds up to an easy fold. Be glad she overbet...a pot sized bet with the above hands would be difficult to get away from and you still have all the troubles described above.
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Old 07-31-2005, 09:58 PM
deadmoney98 deadmoney98 is offline
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Default Re: live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

[ QUOTE ]
The most important thing about the read is that you are going to have to play this hand for almost all your chips if you call here (or raise).

Most likely villian holdings are a set, two pair, or a non-nut flush. All of which you are way behind. Also probable is an ace and a club, in which case she is a little worse than even money to hit her flush by the river. An ace with the K of clubs is a likely possibility there, which gives you no chance to win the pot. Also, she could have a straight flush draw, and she is even money to hit that.

Plus, there's the chance that the SB could come to life with a hand of his own. It all adds up to an easy fold. Be glad she overbet...a pot sized bet with the above hands would be difficult to get away from and you still have all the troubles described above.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree with almost all of this. I will happily go into more detail, preferably after a few other responses. But, basically I think you are ignoring her obvious tell and that she does not at all want a call and you are overestimating her holdings and I think that turns this decision from fold to push.
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Old 07-31-2005, 10:18 PM
ajmargarine ajmargarine is offline
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Default Re: live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

My read based upon her overbet would be 80% she has two pair, set, made flush, or a club in her hand. Your an underdog to all but the one club, and her overbet makes that a neutral EV play for you if you end up all-in with 2 cards to come. (Plus the SB is still a small factor in your decision)

I don't play live so, although I agree with your read that she probably doesn't want you in the hand, I think she is also willing to put the rest of her chips in, which leads me to believe she probably has the one club hand.

This is just a simple 'Don't get caught up in other people's messes' type hand. She bet more than twice the pot on the flop, your investment is minimal so far and all you have is one pair, not likely to improve. Do you want to get stacked with one pair? Your read would have to be rock solid on both her and SB to do anything besides fold here, IMHO. I, of course, am glad to learn here and would like to hear what you have to say in more detail.

--aj
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Old 07-31-2005, 11:01 PM
deadmoney98 deadmoney98 is offline
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Default Re: live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

Well, since no one else seems interested in replying, here is some more of my thought process during this hand.

Obviously this is an ok, but certainly not great flop for my hand, right up until villain overbets. At that point I decided to take some time to make my decision, but immediately figured I would probably have to muck. But when I asked her how much she had left she put on this big show of psuedo-strength. Still, in my mind it was clearly a fold or push situation (a topic on which I would not mind some discussion).

For live players, I think this is one of the most reliable tells on average or worse players. Generally, people staring you down do not want a call and threatening to toss in her chips just confirmed that for me. Basically, this is acting strong to protect weakness. See Rounders or even better Caro's Book of Tells.

So, then I was onto putting her on a range of hands that could make that play AND totally fear a call/raise. Basically I decided she almost had to have AA,AK,AQ, or KK probably with no club. Of these I am obviously only behind to AA. Also, if she had KK with the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I was slightly ahead and she almost certainly would not fold.

Anyway, I honestly do not recall why I was not worried about the SB, maybe cause I had already stacked him once when he would not fold middle pair. Eventually I pushed and villain went into the tank for at least five minutes. She kept muttering about how she let me catch a set and how she knew she should fold and wait for a better spot. She did finally fold and I found out from other people at the table she had AK, no clubs.

Also, immediately afterward several people at the table announced that they were sure I held AK, which disturbed me since apparently my play was rather transparent.
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  #6  
Old 07-31-2005, 11:10 PM
ajmargarine ajmargarine is offline
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Default Re: live TPTK, monotone flop, facing overbet

Wow, nh, nice read. I thought almost for sure you were facing a club or a better hand there.
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