A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings

[GtrHtr]

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well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

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Thats the most disheartening post ever.

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Is it? I think its very encouraging and what the OP asked for.

[Irieguy]

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Perhaps your excitment of doing so well + Your goal to need to reach 500 sngs + Your increased confidence = Some poor decisions on the final strech.

Of course, I am sure you didn't make mistakes in every game but this may have accounted for a portion of the bad string??

Cheers

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Yeah, this is a concept that I've always had a little trouble with. Whenever a player is going through a losing streak, somebody will always say that they are actually just playing badly.

But the fact is... even with perfect play, there is a statistical likelihood for a long losing streak. Is 26 OOTM in a row possible with perfect play? Yes. Was I playing perfectly during my 26? No. Everybody will make mistakes and have periods when their play is suboptimal. In a way... that's part of variance.

What this thread (and a million others) is addressing, is the question of "how bad can it get?" It's helpful to have an idea about this to avoid insanity.

My point is that it is actually more helpful to know how bad it can get including the times that you aren't playing your best than it is to know how bad it can get with perfect play. Because we are not robots.

Irieguy

[Freudian]

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But the fact is... even with perfect play, there is a statistical likelihood for a long losing streak. Is 26 OOTM in a row possible with perfect play? Yes. Was I playing perfectly during my 26? No. Everybody will make mistakes and have periods when their play is suboptimal. In a way... that's part of variance.

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I think OOTM-streaks aren't that important to analyze anything from. My longest is 13, yet my longest breakeven streak is 500. There is no real reason my 13 couldn't have been 20, except that I won a coinflip when I needed it.

[Paul2432]

I've done some simulations using a random number generator for various ROI. The fact is if you play a lot you will have big down swings. The more you play, the bigger down swing you will have. I don't have the numbers at my fingertips, but if you have play a few thousand tournaments, a 50+ buy-in down swing is pretty much expected.

Paul

[pooh74]

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plus $4500+ in rakeback [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

but yeah, varience is a bitch, and if you dont understand that it can really mess with your head. Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long, makes for a crappy week or two. I have no idea how a recreational player makes it through something like that, i suspect they don't and give up.

The truth is you can go a long time in any type of poker not winning and still not be doing anything wrong.

Steve

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A rec player (I'm one) is less likely to have a downswing like that...mainly bc we dont play 8 at a time (I play 3) and we dont have to play high buy-ins bc we already have a main source of income. 30+ buyin downswing is hard for me to even imagine but I guess having experienced a 20 BI downswing I can sort of fathom it...I guess it hurts 50% more.

Anyway, my point is, 8 tabling higher buyins plus playing so many hours a week will lead to these streaks once in a while....and its not always just variance from the mean. There are other variables such as the compounding effects of losing on your play-tilt, and just general burnout. Recreational players have the cushion of not HAVING to play if they dont feel like it.

[Bigwig]

I don't have a graph, or anything solid to comment on at this point. But I've definitely gone 300+ tourneys at break even. I've also had streaks of 500 tourneys at 35% ROI. It's freakish. It can be really difficult to understand, since you're talking about tens of thousands of hands in those streaks.

I still have trouble dealing with it, because any losing week I have is full of insane bad luck. INSANE! But that's a good thing. If I was just getting my money in with the worst of it all the time, or not running up against some of the worst possibe opponent holdings on pushes, then I'd have serious leaks. But since that's not the case, it's variance.

I'm getting better at handling it. I wish I was good as some of the other posters. I've got a crazy bad temper.

[Bigwig]

I'm having a bad week, BTW. Down 10 buy-ins. Last week I cleaned house, but still had a ton of 4ths (like this week). It's so hard to not look at 'what ifs' and just concentrate on improving. But you must keep plugging.

[raptor517]

ive made a few posts like this in the past. let me first say that i play a lot. ok great. so now look, variance happens, variance sucks, but you know what? you can prove how it happens with statistics.. and its not likely for a 15% roi player to go ootm 26 in the row, it WILL happen over a big enough sample. some players are lucky enough to run well over their entire careers. (well meaning not god awful enough to drop 26 in a row anyways..) however, it could take hundreds of thousands of sngs to see both ends of variance, and see everything. no one. and i mean no one, will ever get to that point. some people will see good runs, some willl see bad, some will see both.

i dont doubt that a LOT of players that could be VERY solid sngers have quit because they started off wrong, went on an awful run, ootm 20+ in a row, something like that. i agree with lacky that i have NO clue how recreational players can deal with that. ugh, its awful. anyways, now im gonna talk about me..

ok, so ive played more 55s than prolly anybody over the last 6 months. i 8-12 tabled them about 100 hours a day. anyways, i had THREE 50+ buyin drops, 18 ootm in a row, 22 ootm IN THE SAME DAY AS THE 18, then 26/27 ootm. it was funny because the 18 and 22 was in a 12 hour period, but so was a 13/14 itm run which kinda helped it bounce back. as irie said, was i playing perfect? no, i never do. was i on tilt, possibly, but not that it would affect my game in a huge degree.. anyways, these things DOOOOO happen.. donbuttons is a good friend of mine, and recently in the 109s he had something awful like a 65 buyin drop. SIXTY FIVE. that blows. we talked a lot about variance, and basically complained about how awful it can be.

in the 109s and 215s, ive had a 50+ buyin drop in EACH Of them, but no ootm in a row over 14. just a matter of time though.. anyways, best advice i can give is to keep yer head straight, play at a level yer comfortable with, and KEEP PLAYING. play through it. in the end, it will make you a much stronger and better player. holla

[Bigwig]

In summation:

Variance = [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Freudian]

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In summation:

Variance = [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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Variance -> <- Me