|
|
#31
07-13-2005, 02:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
Well, if he will win $6 by bluffing for $40 he only needs to get you to fold <90% of the time. If you're folding an ace here, you easily fold something like 95-98% of the time. Sounds like a +EV play to me.
[/ QUOTE ] First, thanks for taking the time to respond to me; I appreciate it. This point that I quoted is something that I didn't consider. I need to start using this form of thinking when I analyze hands, especially if I want to play high stakes in the future. I definately understand your reasoning now. 
|
|
#33
07-13-2005, 03:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] he has a nine a lot more than 5% of the time, and you are ahead a LOT less than 45% of the time. by the way, villain didn't minraise preflop.
|
|
#34
07-13-2005, 03:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
this is not a bluff. he will not expect you to fold an ace, he will expect you to call with it. he might do this with an ace because he's sure enough that you don't have a nine.
|
|
#35
07-13-2005, 04:29 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)? RESULTS
Wow, lots of action on this thread. I like it.
So I was actually the villain here, I had quads, but I did not push on the river, a decision I had been regretting. I was sure he had an Ace and did not think he could fold a full house. Anyway, I raised his 5 to 15. He typed in the chat "you got a 9?" and called.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
