Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)? - Page 3

GrunchCan · #21 07-13-2005, 12:19 PM

I get it now. Controlling the size of the pot. New concept for me. To think, I just learned this concept the other day, and I already forgot...

soah · #22 07-13-2005, 12:23 PM

You can't make a value bet if you never get called by a worse hand.

Go_Blue88 · #23 07-13-2005, 12:29 PM

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If you c/c the turn, and then check the river, i think you're setting yourself up for a problem. Most players will overbet the pot there with an Ace or a 9 so you might face an expensive decision. So i think that you at least need to bet the river if you c/c the turn.

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I disagree. Most players will bet an A and a 9 fairly strongly but, by checking the turn, there's a smaller pot to fight over. If we assume villain will bet a consistent percentage of the pot (full pot, double pot, whatever), we pay less to split and lose less when we're behind.

If villian will push all-in with an A or 9 whether we bet the turn or not, betting the turn is still wrong as we have to be more certain we are beat on the river (due to the pot odds) to fold.

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Ahh good point.

GrunchCan · #24 07-13-2005, 12:42 PM

There's been a lot of good advice in this thread but unfortunately, I still don't know how to play the river!

So, going back to the OP, does Hero call the all-in given the way the hand was actually played?

But also, let's say Hero played the way seems to be the consensus as the right play.

Edit: Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:

MP raises to $1.00.
Villan calls.
Hero calls.

Flop ($3.00) : 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checks around.

Turn ($3.00) : A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks.
Villan bets $3.00.
MP folds.
Hero calls.

River ($9.00) : 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks.
Villan bets ~$40 (all-in)

Hero...?

Whats hero's action here?

TheWorstPlayer · #25 07-13-2005, 12:47 PM

I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. Easy call. This line looks much more like someone trying to push me off my hand than anything else. And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider. So it is much more profitable than a line where I am betting the turn and river, like in the actual hand, where I am encouraging him to fold and he is STILL pushing over the top.

GrunchCan · #26 07-13-2005, 12:52 PM

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And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move.

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Ah, yet another important point I need to mull. I need to be able to call the ultimate all-in when taking this line.

Go_Blue88 · #27 07-13-2005, 01:19 PM

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I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider.

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I don't see why you're calling. From Villian's perspective, what do you put your opponent on? He check calls the turn, so I think he has an Ace, a nine, or a pocket pair (he doesn't believe that i have anything so he calls w/ a pp). On the river, i can use this logic against you; in fact, this is why overbets work so well in my opinion. People think "well i played it so passively, he might be trying to push me off of my hand."
Basically I see this as calling ~40 bucks to split ~6 dollar pot, and 3 of those 6 dollars are yours and 3 are his. So you're calling 40 bucks to win like fifty cents (i can't remember the action p/f). Then, the times that Villian does have a 9, you'll lose 40 bucks. Why would Villian bluff this much to win a 6 dollar pot? I just don't see it; I see this as a split or losing situation, and I have so little in the pot that I'd just fold. Am i missing something here?

wslee00 · #28 07-13-2005, 01:23 PM

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I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. Easy call. This line looks much more like someone trying to push me off my hand than anything else. And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider. So it is much more profitable than a line where I am betting the turn and river, like in the actual hand, where I am encouraging him to fold and he is STILL pushing over the top.

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so you think the villain is making a cold stone bluff AND risking all of his stack on it 45% of the time? highly unlikely

I'd say when he goes all-in in this situation, the percentages are more 2-3% he has a 9, 95% he has an A, 2% stone cold bluff.

i'm folding and waiting for a better spot to put all my money in

TheWorstPlayer · #29 07-13-2005, 01:45 PM

By your own numbers, it's a call.

TheWorstPlayer · #30 07-13-2005, 01:53 PM

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On the river, i can use this logic against you; in fact, this is why overbets work so well in my opinion. People think "well i played it so passively, he might be trying to push me off of my hand."

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I can use this logic against you. If people think there is no way you will push into a small pot with anything worse than an ace, then I can always push here and get you to laydown anything short of quad nines. All we're arguing about is levels of thinking. I am saying that most opponents here are on the first level of thinking: "I want him to fold, so I'll bet a lot." You are saying that they are on the second level of thinking: "I know that a big bet looks like a bluff, so I will make it with a good hand and hope to get a call." Of course that's possible. The question is, how likely is that? Not only how likely is it that villain would push with an ace or a nine, which I agree might be likely, but how often will he also push with something which is NOT an ace or a nine? I think for many people in this situation it is not unlikely.

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Basically I see this as calling ~40 bucks to split ~6 dollar pot, and 3 of those 6 dollars are yours and 3 are his.

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All of the money is in the pot. None of it is yours or his.

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So you're calling 40 bucks to win like fifty cents (i can't remember the action p/f). Then, the times that Villian does have a 9, you'll lose 40 bucks.

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So are you saying that you would fold preflop, or that you would fold on the turn? (hint:I think either of those is extremely way too weak)

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Why would Villian bluff this much to win a 6 dollar pot? I just don't see it; I see this as a split or losing situation, and I have so little in the pot that I'd just fold. Am i missing something here?

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Well, if he will win $6 by bluffing for $40 he only needs to get you to fold <90% of the time. If you're folding an ace here, you easily fold something like 95-98% of the time. Sounds like a +EV play to me.