River

[Jakesta]

I never said it had anything to do with the first statement. :P

I was just making a correction. But I like betting because it is a very easy fold if raised.

[istewart]

I think he calls with a lot more hands then he bets though, no (i.e. pairs he might check behind)? Thus, although they might both be negative, the EV of betting (and folding) might be greater than that of check-calling.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he calls with a lot more hands then he bets though, no (i.e. pairs he might check behind)? Thus, although they might both me negative, the EV of betting (and folding) might be greater than that of check-calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is true. I just think that he has a better hand more times than he has a pair with which he'd call, even if his calling range is greater. Make sense?

[aK13]

I like check/call.

[gharp]

This is a good point. Do you think this might be offset though by the times he'll bluff when he has nothing?

[jba]

I do. I like bet/fold here

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good point. Do you think this might be offset though by the times he'll bluff when he has nothing?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not good at the math here (read:bad). What % of the time would you give an unknown for bluffing this obviously uberscary river? Also, if one of the math gurus wants to run some #'s on this, I would be curious.

-Jaran

[gharp]

I'm pretty far from being a "math guru" but I'll give this a shot.

Let's assume the hands for villain are:
30% of the time = 4 or 8 (15/15)
25% of the time = flush draw
45% of the time = paired the board (5% on the A, 40% 7,6,5)

Also assume:
- he'll bet/raise with the made str or flush 100%
- he'll bluff with the 4 25% after seeing you check, and always fold if you bet
- he'll call 100% with a lower pair
- he'll bet 50% of the time with a lower pair or the A

SO...I think you can calculate your expectation as:

Bet+Fold = .4(1) - .4(1) - .05(1) = -.05 [calls w/low pr; raises w/str; calls w/A]

Check+Call = .25(.15(1)) - .4(1) + .5(.4(1)) - .5(.05(1)) = -.1875 [bluffs w/missed str; bets w/str or flush; bets w/low pr; bets w/A]

With those assumptions (which might suck), it looks like Bet+Fold is the better play.

[CallMeIshmael]

Bet.

At this limit, players tend not to bluff raise.

If you check, he is going to bet a flush, a straight, and maybe an ace. And check behind with all of his one pair hands.


This is sort of along the same lines as Clarkmeister. Even though you might be an underdog when you bet, you are a much bigger dog when you call. Simply because people arent bluffing at these pots often enough at this limit.

FWIW, the caveat is that when he has an ace, and plans to check it down, you lose that bet. But, I still think its a bet.

[AlmightyJay]

When he calls the turn, his most likely holding is a draw. The river completes all kinds of draws. I check this river.