Waiting for the turn

[Wetdog]

The turn check/3-bet screams flush made. At that point I should (but sometimes don't because I'm Bud-donked and in love with Qs) fold. Then I tell myself not to do it again, but I'll do it the next nite.

edit: Oops, didn't see the flop pair. Two queen outs plus the 7s plus maybe half the hearts because he may be holding the A, so let's call it 8 outs.

[KingOtter]

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couldn't he have easily bet on trip 7s or paired T? it is hard to say because he didn't face any agression on the flop and we have no reads other than "not a bad player".

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A paired T is about the only hand we're ahead of, so sure, that's the hand we hope for. And yeah, I may be giving Joe too much credit, but I can only go by what OP said. He's certainly not a maniac. Perhaps a bit laggy.

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so he checks the turn- w/o reads, it is tough to put him a flush at this point. sLP-A then bets- possibly a bluff or flush draw. i'd raise here because we have outs to the flush and to a full house. the c/r though pretty much nails SB on a flush, if not a flopped full house.

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Do you always raise when you have outs? You have to have equity to raise, not just outs. And though we do have outs, I don't think we have enough in order to merit the raise.

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either way i think the initial turn raise makes sense..then again, i don't know how to figure out the "equity" thing [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Well if we think we're ahead still, then a raise would make sense. But a semi-loose passive player bet out, so we have to say 'what if we're behind?'. We don't know he was bluffing at it yet. I don't know if we knew he would bluff at a pot before the hand, either.

I'm not the best guy for calculating equity, either. So assuming we're behind, lets count outs, which we can use as a % chance of hitting our cards, and assume they're winners. We'll discount them on the front end. And we'll do it before we have the c/r info from Joe.

Flush cards: 9 unseen, discounted slightly for higher flush, or boat since pair on board--- 6 outs.
Boat cards: 2 7's, but discounted because Joe may have one, so 1.5 outs (it's a slim chance he has one). 2 Q's are probably clean, since you have the Qh. 3.5 outs.

So 9.5 outs is about 37% chance of hitting your winning card. So with Slappy in the hand, you can cap it. But do you know Joe will call 2 with the threatening flush card on the board? Since we're doing this before the c/r I'd have to say we can't guarantee he'd call 2 for the flush since he went passive and checked.

So it's better to call in order to encourage Joe to call, too.

Then he c/r's. Doh! Slappy folds. Doh! Doh! ... now it's headsup, and your equity just fell quite a bit, so you definitely don't have the equity to raise heads up.

By the way... there is no way in the world I can do this calculation at the table. I'm just avoiding work, apparently.

KO

[KingOtter]

Doh... I did my calculations based on the odds on the flop, not odds on the turn.

It's even worse... 9.5 outs on the turn with only the river to come is about 20% chance to hit the cards you need to win on the river. So no, raise wouldn't even be good when you know 2 people are in the pot.

KO

[KingOtter]

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The turn check/3-bet screams flush made. At that point I should (but sometimes don't because I'm Bud-donked and in love with Qs) fold. Then I tell myself not to do it again, but I'll do it the next nite.

edit: Oops, didn't see the flop pair. Two queen outs plus the 7s plus maybe half the hearts because he may be holding the A, so let's call it 8 outs.

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Yeah, you're getting about 12.5:1 pot odds for calling Joe's 3-bet. You've got plenty of pot odds to call the 3-bet.

Another question... on the River... we're 13.5:1, call for one bet? Do we think we can win this one time out of 14.5?

I might call it just to see wtf he c/r'ed with on the turn.

KO