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Old 04-04-2005, 02:47 AM
TimM TimM is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: New York
Posts: 147
Default How to break even for 5 months and 130K hands

A while ago I posted this about my big downswings:



All full games, no 6-max
AUG+SEP: 10 days of 3/6, rest 5/10
OCT: All 10/20
NOV: 2 days 15/30, 6 days 10/20, rest 5/10
DEC: 18 days 5/10, rest whoring at 2/4
JAN: 28 days 3/6, then 2 days 5/10

Well, after five months and 130K hands, I finally managed to recover:



FEB: 15 days 3/6, rest 2/4
MAR: All 3/6
APR: Started 5/10

Actually this graph is misleading, because I dropped in limits four times over the course of the downswing. The same chart in BB terms instead of dollars is a little more revealing:



The nice thing about this chart is that the overall slope of the lines is directly proportional to win rate. So here we can see that even though I recovered in BB terms in only 1.5 months, my win rate was still been lower than it had been before. I was winning most of my sessions, but still having frequent ~100BB down sessions that would kill my overall win rate, with no up sessions of similar size at all. Sessions where I ran well and should have won big were only small winners.

Of course all through this time I've been thinking about my play and making some subtle changes, and I feel a lot better about my game now. Although the sample size is a little small so far, I have had three ~100BB up sessions out of the last 10, and haven't had one of the 100BB downers in about a month.
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