Getting desperate for help - Page 3

1800GAMBLER · #21 04-01-2005, 01:06 PM

I don't believe tournaments are to blame, david quit learning way before that.

Infact the only time i can think of david ever pushing his game since he made it to 5/10 is when he posted 'back to basics' and ZJ took a look at some of his hands and then his win rate improved by 1bb/100h.

'play to win or play for fun'.

rigoletto · #22 04-01-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine your learning curve over a period of 3 years, and your amount won curve will have been the same as that just about 3 months delayed. You stopped learning 6 - 12 months ago and now the winning curve stops too.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make sense unless he moved to tougher games within the last 6 months. He might have stopped learning, but it was at a stage where he beat the game he's in.

1800GAMBLER · #23 04-01-2005, 01:11 PM

He got to a very fragile stage of winning which could easily be ended by tilt, games getting tougher or just forgetting things/picking up a bad habit.

All of these things happened at once, variance got a hold of him probably tilted him somewhat and give him bad habits, the games got a bit tougher and changed style, and david isn't learning so his ability isn't improving while it easily could be dropping.

rigoletto · #24 04-01-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He got to a very fragile stage of winning a medium amount which could easily be ended by tilt, games getting tougher or just forgetting things/picking up a bad habit.

All of these things happened at once, variance got a hold of him probably tilted him somewhat and give him bad habits, the games got a bit tougher and changed style, and david isn't learning so his ability isn't improving while it easily could be dropping.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you by not learning mean that your game deterioates and gets worse if you don't keep up the studies, then I agree. I just thought your initial explanation was to simplistic and there seems to be a lot of advice like that in this thread.

BK_ · #25 04-01-2005, 01:20 PM

i think that if people didnt know that very long bad streaks were possible, they would be much better players. bad streaks are the best time to really take a look at your game and improve it. i was hoping that when you make your 600bb downstreak post you would try to plus some of the obvious holes in your 15/30 game, but was saddened when your conclusion was that you were just running very badly

Clarkmeister · #26 04-01-2005, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
David,

Many people in the past have pointed out things in your game that you need to fix. You have in the past admitted that you think some of these things might not be optimal poker, but you choose to play these hands/situations anyway. Have you eliminated all of the things people have pointed out as leaks already? If not, this streak is not any surprise, and that's where you need to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

1800GAMBLER · #27 04-01-2005, 01:28 PM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 :#A500AF(dross has AKo)/ raises, 2 folds, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 :#A500AF(dross)/ caps, MP3 calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, dross bets, MP3 raises, UTG folds, dross 3-bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.83 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
dross bets, MP3 calls.

River: (11.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
dross bets, MP3 calls.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Button :#A500AF(dross)/ raises, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, dross raises, SB 3-bets, dross calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, dross calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, dross calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: 
dross has 7h 7c (one pair, sevens).
SB has 6s Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins 9.50 BB. 

Play less tables.

rigoletto · #28 04-01-2005, 01:29 PM

I'm going to heed my own statement and give some actually practical advice instead of just speculating about the reasons. There is nothing new in the following, but good advice is good no matter how often it get said:

- Take a week of from poker. Don't play poker, don't read poker, don't think poker. Play with your kids or invent a new form of penecilin.
- Drop down in limits. Don't even think of recouperating your losses, just focus on getting your game straight.
- Post hands and focus on your ring game for a while. Tourneys will still be there once you get back on your feet.
- Play shorter sessions and fewer tables. It's important that you don't fall into automode; this is when we fall back to loosing patterns.
- Stop analyzing what went wrong over the last couple of months. Focus on the future, the next hand. We tend to get into 2nd guessing ourselves when running bad.

Boris · #29 04-01-2005, 01:59 PM

After 800 BB I would just quit. Seriously.

fnord_too · #30 04-01-2005, 03:13 PM

After reading the thread, I have some odd thoughts to add:

1800 said he did not think the tournament experience was hurting your limit game, but I am not so sure. One thing I do in no limit (ring and tourney) is cold call A LOT more, and I'm pretty sure this is correct. I have been playing a lot more NL ring games lately do to circumstance, and I am always reminding myself of the differences when playing limit.

So, do this: by period (month, quarter, whatever) record your pfcc percentages and your win rate for that period. Obviously, not all cold calls are created equal, but let's just look for a simple correlation to start.

Do the same thing with vpip, pfr, and post flop aggression.

I think your numbers say you were 1.9BB/100 for ~300K hands over a 10 month period. I don't think the games have changed enough in the last year to cause a -2.9bb/100 swing (extrapolating from your numbers, it looks like you are slightly better than -1bb/100 for the last 3 months/90k hands). So the problem is some combination of running bad and your game changing. Over 90k hands (again, guessing that is about what you played this year), it seems that a good portion of this is due to your game deteriorating.

I strongly suggest looking for correlation between your stats and your results.

As to anyone being willing to review hand histories, you have a forum full of them. No one ever got banned for posting too many hands.