22-44 EP Party 0.5/1.0 Poll

[GrunchCan]

I dunno, 2/4 seems tougher to me now while the bonus is being cleared. I might be halucinating though.

FWIW, I attribute most of my initial loss at 2/4 to just bad play. I suck less now. Not to say that I dont still suck a little.

[Catt]

Thanks for the reply.

I still suck and make sucky plays all the time. But I was pretty surprised at the extent of my misfortune when I looked at pre-flop hands dealt to me and post-flop results of various hand categories. 2/4 now seems pretty comfortable, and, while I find 2/4 to be looser pre-flop than 1/2, I find it to be better played post-flop by and large, contrary to the seeming consensus on the forums (I never really bought this urban legend that 1/2 is the toughest of internet poker (or 3/6 is, or x/x is, etc.))

[jon_keck]

22 - 35 times (0.08)
33 - 39 times (0.40)
44 - 39 times 0.99

Combined bb/hand 0.18bb

combined VP$IP 80.53

[illunious]

At .5/1, I limped 95% with 5,4,3 and 2 pocket pairs in EP (7,6,5 in PT) and was losing with them over 100k hands.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
I attribute most of my initial loss at 2/4 to just bad play

[/ QUOTE ]

in my case, my wins are coming from generally modestly positive sessions (5-8BB) whereas my losses are sessions of the >25BB variety. i feel that i am not adjusting to table conditions properly, am making far too many sucky and questionable plays, and not keeping my emotions under control at the 2/4 suckouts (double stakes --- "that was a $100 pot!!!" ).

in general, i don't put much stock in the bonus clearing phenomenon (after the first couple of days)...the serious players/pros are playing so many hands anyway that they're done clearing after the first weekend (i would think).

in response to catt...i don't think anyone is saying that the postflop play at 2/4 is the same as .5/1. in general the players are MUCH better postflop at 2/4, and your overall edge on the table is MUCH smaller than at .5/1. i think the conventional wisdom goes that by exploiting the (fewer number of) bad players at 2/4 and (with reads) selectively tangling with the better players, 2/4 is a gold mine.

i did attempt to clear the party reload at 2/4, and promptly dropped 50bb, then went to 1/2 (where i've been running extremely crappily over the last 5k hands) and promptly dropped another 50 bb -- now my goal is to claw back to even (including the bonus)...so much for free money [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

sorry for the long, rambling and OT reply, so here's some content: my combined vp for my stats i posted was 94% and if i exclude the blinds ("not a blind" filter) which i forgot to do, my win rate drops to .06 bb/100. however, if you include positions 4 OTB and up (as opposed to 5) the winrate goes back up to .10 bb/100.... does this mean anything...probably not.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
in response to catt...i don't think anyone is saying that the postflop play at 2/4 is the same as .5/1. in general the players are MUCH better postflop at 2/4, and your overall edge on the table is MUCH smaller than at .5/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was actually commenting about 1/2 vs 2/4. I frequently see comments here and in SS forum that convey something along the lines of: "1/2 is soooo tough, get to 2/4 as soon as you can because the games are softer." I happen to believe that this is poppycock.

Sorry for continued hijack . . . interesting poll even if the sample sizes are ridiculous.

And thanks for sharing illunious -- interesting that with a larger data set than most and a very impressive overall winrate that these limps were unprofitable for you.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
in my case, my wins are coming from generally modestly positive sessions (5-8BB) whereas my losses are sessions of the >25BB variety.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its exactly the opposite for me. My wins are big, like +20 BB or more per session. My losses are tiny, from 1-5 BB. Fortunately my winning/losing sessions are close to 1:1, so my BR is +.

I'm sure this pattern is telling me something about my play - something I'm really bad at, or some major leak. I just don't know what.

[tiltaholic]

excuse me, um, i, um, believe, um, that you have my stapler. i mean, winrate.

i think your table selection is likely better than mine.

[Peter Harris]

+0.01 for both 44 and 33, a big 0 for 22. could be worse!

[chris_a]

Assuming each person in a bin is in the middle of that bin and the people on the ends are at -0.24 and 0.30 respectively for losing and winning sides:

Mean: -0.04 BB/hand
Std: 0.1721 BB/hand (this is the standard deviation among the poll samples, not the std. dev. each time you play the hand)
1 sigma Confidence interval: +- about 0.04 BB/hand
2 sigma Confidence interval: +- about 0.07 BB/hand

Now, I know that this poll stinks of low sample size (both in the number of samples and in the number of hands per sample) I think the average value and confidence interval are somewhat useful.

Before I started this poll, I had three statements in mind and wanted to look at the validity of them. I think I would now rank them as follows based on this poll in order from most likely to least likely.

1) It is UNCLEAR whether 22-44 are profitable in EP for the average 2+2 player in the 0.5/1.0 Party games.
2) It is clear that 22-44 are NOT profitable in EP for the average 2+2 player in the 0.5/1.0 Party games.
3) It is clear that 22-44 ARE profitable in EP for the average 2+2 player in the 0.5/1.0 Party games.

The confidence is pretty low, but not useless.

Note:
I'm pretty sure that there exist quite profitable 0.5/1.0 games that are profitable where 22-44 is unplayable in EP. I'm almost positive that there exists quite profitable 0.5/1.0 games where 22 is unplayable UTG. When would you add these games? When you are 4 or more tabling and don't have time to do excellent game selection.

Example: look at the case of illunious, this is a guy who 10-tables and made over 4BB/100 after a large large sample size. To me, this is a clear case that adding more tables that are pretty profitable contributes more to your overall hourly winrate than adding just tables at which 22-44 are profitable in EP. This is under the assumption that illunious doesn't have time to do superb table selection when 10-tabling, but probably selects tables decently or at least plays very very well. Illunious also comments that he's losing money with these hands (he has over 150k hands at 0.5/1.0).