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  #11  
Old 12-22-2005, 11:58 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

[ QUOTE ]

reason i just called on the turn was hoping he would do this on the river, so i call. But now i'm thinking that he's probably bluffing less than 50% of the time here so i probably should have just taken the pot on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.
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  #12  
Old 12-22-2005, 01:30 PM
2005 2005 is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

[ QUOTE ]
pf: i usually minraise this considering you are still pretty deep, and are playing this for set instead of showdown value.

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If this is the case, why would you min-raise? If you're playing for set value, you want as many people in there as possible, and though it seems ridiculous, some people will fold a hand for a min raise that they would have called if it was for just a limp.
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  #13  
Old 12-22-2005, 01:56 PM
mlagoo mlagoo is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

well i just dont know about all this.

i think villian played this hand just like 66-TT, Jx would. barring a specific read, i think my default line here is to check/fold or bet/fold the turn. i guess i just dont see villian having 66-88 enough here to make calling down profitable.

also, i think i normally CB this flop. there really aren't THAT many people in the hand with you ... and this is a totally innocent flop. barring a CB, on this board, I would do a check-call flop-bet turn-shutdown river line. its kind of predictable, but i mean its a stars $20 tourney, fancy play probably isnt all that necessary.

this is a really disorganized post. i need to work on that.
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  #14  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:11 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

I'd lead the flop. Against so many players it is unlikely that hero would check the flop if he held a jack. Once hero checks, his hand becomes very vulnerable OOP. Villain's 1/2 pot bet into a 4-way pot looks fishy, I might consider c/r to T1800 if I had a read on him as a joker.

The turn was very lucky for you. Hero would probably have to give up on many turns. I'd push the turn.
My guess is that hero is behind against villain's range slightly.
~30 ways good jack
~30 ways good overs
Villain is ahead slightly more pairs than hero is ahead.

In spite of this, I'm calling 100% of the time on the river after the turn, given the overlay in the pot.

Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

Pushing the turn is also consistent with a variety of holdings for hero.

I don't like villain's line. I prefer checking behind (preferable because WA/WB) or push the turn. His 1K bet is supposed to look like a milking bet for a jack which is now much less likely and the 1K bet commits him to the pot. He probably makes a slightly EV- call here against a c/push by hero.

After the river, I call with incredulity and curse the poker gods.
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  #15  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:23 PM
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

Pre-flop: Limping and raising are fine. If I limp, I play for a set, so no hit no bet (if I hit I may slow-play), but if I raise, I will likely do a CB on any flop unless there's an ace with 4 callers (too much chance I will get called and I don't like to bet the flop and then shut down - this is for table image purposes, it's important that people know that when I bet, I am not sutting down, so if they only call, they will afce a big turn bet).

So given your raise and 3 callers, the flop is pretty decent to you, only 1 over and it's a J. I would CB, but if I don't I am not calling his bet, why would he bet 600 with air?

Turn - A second J and he bets semi-weak (this bet is enough to make you call the turn and also gives you the pot odds to call any river all-in if you call the turn, so I think that if his plan is to go all-in on the river because he has a good hand, his 1000 bet is perfect)

Why call here? I fhe has over, make him fold by re-raising all-in, if he has 99 or 10-10 (I would be surprised) make him lay it down also.

River - At that point you have to call.

I think Vilain palyed this hand very well!
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  #16  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:27 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

[ QUOTE ]
This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.


[/ QUOTE ]

The T didn't scare me specifically, just now that i look back at the hand, i dont think he bets here often enough (without a hand) to make it more profitable than c/r the turn. If i'm letting him see the river for free/cheap, it should be either because i'm trying for a cheap showdown, or i think he'll bluff at it, and neither seems to be true in this hand.


---

Anyways, i still dunno what i think of this, Villain in the hand had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . For a a pair of 3's. I think if i did it again i'd have c/r the turn, but i like it up until there. And if it was a situation where it hought he'd bluff more often on the river, i'd call the turn, to call any river bet.
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  #17  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:56 PM
DeuceKicker DeuceKicker is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

I don't think you played this like a deep-stack-poker hand (not that I'm an authority). What's the point of having 50BB if on the turn you're considering a check-push, but opt instead to call the anticipated river push from villain?

I realize that the number of callers changed the dynamic of the hand quite a bit. Was this normal for this table?
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  #18  
Old 12-22-2005, 03:37 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

Gotcha, I just misunderstood how you were presenting your thinking.

Here are some numbers I worked out for the hand.

3450 in the pot, we have 2 options.

1.)Call to try to induce a river bluff or get a hand like TT to let us off cheap by checking behind the river.

2.)CR to shut out hands that are drawing live, possibly getting 99-TT to fold

We can make it easier by ignoring hands are going to the felt regardless JX, QQ+, 22, 33. They are getting all of the chips in no matter what, and we are resigned to call. Our line is irrelevant. Same goes for any hand we beat that villan is married to, 66,77, etc.

Inducing the Bluff
Worst case scenario is that he has 2OC hearts. But they are infrequent enough that I am willing to ignore them.

The most likely worst case scenario is Villan has 5-6 outs. I could see situations where 2 OCs or pair+OC would get here.

The most likely best case scenario is Villan has an underpair, drawing to 2 outs.


6 outs
12% of the time, he will hit on the river and we pay him off
-Hero has 790 after the hand

88% of the time, he will miss, and either chose to bluff or check behind.
-Hero has 7400 when Villan checks behind
-Hero has 9560 assuming Villan bluffs off his entire stack.

So, when villan is not a bluffer with 6 outs
.12(790) + .88(7400) = 6606

When villan is a bluffer
.12(790) + .88(9560) = 8507

We need him to be the bluffing type 41% of the time here for a call to be correct. Of course, if he wont bluff off his entire stack that changes. For instance, if he only will bluff 1000 chips, we would need him to do it 90% of the time.

Here is some examples of how often we need him to bluff given his outs and bluff size,

O(outs)=5, B(bluff size)=2160 = 34%
O(5), B(1000) = 73%
O(2), B(2160) = 13%
O(2), B(1000) = 28%

The Call, also has the added benefit of possibly causing him to check behind the river with 99, TT, when he would have called a CR push on the turn.

Take the pot
The check-raise is easy to value. Since there arent any likely draws, we assume that the value of the play is 7400 + the EV from causing 99-TT to fold.

Hands like 99-TT are only a small portion of villans range, and since both plays give the villan a chance to make a mistake on our behalf, I think we can ignore them too, when deciding between lines.

So, as usual, we go through the math, and it comes down to specific read. How many outs do we think he has (I would 2-5 most likely), and how often to we think he will bluff off his stack here.
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  #19  
Old 12-22-2005, 03:49 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, the pot is double his stack. When he hits, we would gladly give him the rest of our stack for the money in the pot. So, the immediate odds are the worry here. The pot is offering both players 2-1, add in another stack and its goes to 3-1, not really enough to change how that many hands are played.
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  #20  
Old 12-22-2005, 05:13 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: 88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i\'m a calling station.

The pot is T2500 at the turn.

villain stands to win 15% of T5500 if we check/call the river or ~T825. This is the equity we give up by checking the turn against two overs. We give up this equity for the case when villain bluffs when he is behind, which should be pretty slim, even though this was the case and villain made a mini-bluff at the turn, and a mini-bluff on the river.

IMO villain should have checked behind on the turn or pushed putting a really difficult decision to hero, and the amount of times he bluffs/pushes is not enough to justify hero checking the turn and giving a free card IMO. Given the fact that neither side is likely to have the jack, villain should be content with the equity that hero is giving him (free card) and check behind.

In my line I'd expect villain to call most of the hands that are ahead, and many of the hands that are behind.
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