QQ Hand 9 person Home Tourney

[Snarf]

9 person home tourney. 1 table. All 9 still playing I believe.
Starting stack is 2500.

Hero is chip leader with around 5,800 in chips.
Stack immediately to the right of hero is 4,000. No other stacks of note.

Blinds are...75 150.

Hero is in MP.
1 EP short stack all in for 900ish.
Fold. Fold.
T4000 stack pushes all-in as well....

Hero looks down and sees.... Two Queens.

I've got T1800 behind if I call and lose....
I'm a proven effective short stacked player amongst my home crowd....but it'd be a shame to toss so much money away in 1 hand...

Hero....?

[Yads]

I push all in, I think you'll see AK or a small PP a lot. If the guy actually had AA or KK, he would not be pushing all in, but you know these guys, so maybe you have a better read.

[jojobinks]

[ QUOTE ]
I push all in, I think you'll see AK or a small PP a lot. If the guy actually had AA or KK, he would not be pushing all in, but you know these guys, so maybe you have a better read.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd fold, expecting the ss to have any A, pair, or two big cards, and the 4k player having a hand like TT+, AK, AQ.

i'd guess you're a coinflip here, and i wouldn't want to flip a coin with the huge stack against the only other big stack (and no chance to get him to lay down).

[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
I push all in, I think you'll see AK or a small PP a lot. If the guy actually had AA or KK, he would not be pushing all in, but you know these guys, so maybe you have a better read.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as reads....this particular player loves over-betting the nuts and playing uber-twisted psycological mind games with thinking players like myself. The 'ol reverse reverse reverse psycology type of tricks.

He WOULD push al=in here with KK AA...JUST in the HOPE that I would wake up with QQ or JJ or so....and sit there and think...'if he had aces, would he really go all in?' So those two are definitely in his range.

His range here is...probably....JJ + (maybe 99 10 10...but thats a big maybe) AQs+, AKo.....

Basically I expect him to flip up AK, AQs, or JJ+

If I *knew* for a fact the he had AK...what would you think of calling?

It's a risk, you win this pot you are in position to win the whole thing.
If you fold, you are still the chip leader.
Depends on the read here, but I would probably call here and expect to have the best hand.

[Socrates]

You should probably start by analyzing the math. If you can't do that, then I would suggest some time off to understand EV.

[Munga30]

[ QUOTE ]
If I *knew* for a fact the he had AK...what would you think of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be pretty stoked to call. For example, if the EP pusher has a pair below queens, 46% of the time my pair holds up against both and my stack is . Of the 18% of the time the small pair sucks out on us both, I still win 900 from the big stack a little more than half those times, bringing me back to 1800. The remaining times I get busted. Average out those results and calling is worth almost 800 chips. This is what folding costs you. It's too much to give up, no matter how well you play.

I happen to think your ranges for the big stack are too narrow. Had the 5800 chip stack acted yet? If he had, the 4K stack would have invited in some callers with AA or KK, don't you think?

He forgot one of the key psychological pieces of the puzzle. Before I pushed in he started to put out a bet of 2000 (out of turn, he forgot about me, go figure) to which I responded with the preemptive all-in.

I tend to over play strong hands because I play very aggressively anyways so I still get action on them. You're never really sure what I'm going to have until you see the cards (*though I don't slowplay to often, no need to).

[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
He forgot one of the key psychological pieces of the puzzle. Before I pushed in he started to put out a bet of 2000 (out of turn, he forgot about me, go figure) to which I responded with the preemptive all-in.

I tend to over play strong hands because I play very aggressively anyways so I still get action on them. You're never really sure what I'm going to have until you see the cards (*though I don't slowplay to often, no need to).

[/ QUOTE ]

First post Wombat. Nice. Glad I lured you in by failing to mention that part of the hand. ;-)

In all honesty - I didn't really think your bet AFTER my mis-bet meant all that much. I mean... I could've made that same raise with AQ or 99 (which I'm NOT calling your all-in with) as with the TWO hands I would call your bet with.

So as far as not understanding EV...I think I do understand it to an extent - though admittedly not enough. As far as the math goes, I can approximate well enough, but lack the understanding to do the precise math for the circumstances but heres my thinking on the hand EV wise:

the 900 stack had an ace - and one over. Garunteed. (read/player based knowledge)

This makes the likelihood that Wombat has two aces less. He could have two kings. But AK is more likely, and 99-JJ is just as likely as KK.

Sure he watched me almost bet/isolation raise out of turn by accident....but a huge iso-raise all-in could be anything from KK or that rare AA praying to lure me in in case I had QQ or KK (if he had AA) to having a mid-pair hoping to scare me out of me two overs.... with the latter being more likely.

Now that I've tipped the scales in favor of me having the best hand at the moment...I'm looking at - worst case scenario then - of being against a medium ace and ace king. With one of the aces gone the odds tip even more in my favor... So I figure to be 58ish to win the huge pot and basically seal the tourney right there...

IF not...I'll still have a chip stack to play with...and as Wombat said - he plays very aggressively and I figure for at least one easy double up on my 1800 chips at point later in time if I lose....

So...my lack of specific math aside...what part of EV am I apparantly missing here?

Not being sarcastic or anything...thats why I posted the hand....

I called....but would like some help analyzing 'why' for EV reasons a fold would be best there.