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  #21  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:02 PM
imported_leader imported_leader is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

He probably isnít raising anything that you'd love to play against. Therefore, fold.
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  #22  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:30 PM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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lol. What does this mean? You are certain he has KK/AA so you're going to bet/raise/3-bet/cap the flop and turn to get him to make a sick fold on the river?
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  #23  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:35 PM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

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Your 7:1 to flop a set

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i thought it was 8.3:1 to flop a pair to set...

Where you get 7:1 from?

Id 3bet or fold, Calling is my least favourite.

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(50 choose 3)/((2 choose 1) * (49 choose 2)) - 1 = 7.33
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  #24  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:40 PM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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He'll have big aces as often as he'll have a pair that crushes you. 3-bet and outplay him after the flop.

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.
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  #25  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:41 PM
colgin colgin is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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UTG here is 56/1.4/0.8 over 65 hands.

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VPIP converges much more quickly than PFR. Therefore, I put more credence in the fact that he is definitely loose than that he is necessarily passive pre-flop.

Notwithstanding the aggro big bind, I three-bet my pocket eights here with position.
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  #26  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:28 PM
MexKrax MexKrax is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

I 3 bet. You have position, and villian's range isn't necessarily going to be as tight as his stats seem to indicate.
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  #27  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:30 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.
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  #28  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:45 PM
fire_fly fire_fly is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses. Oh yeah and if he hit's, you're screwed.
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  #29  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:52 PM
RunDownHouse RunDownHouse is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

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definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses.

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For the last time, this range is waaaay too tight.
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  #30  
Old 12-12-2005, 06:00 PM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.

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I seriously doubt it's THAT far off. 65 hands is 11 orbits. Surely some blind steals, opportunities to open in MP with QJ etc. have come up.
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