2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?

[@bsolute_luck]

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OK I think that analysis sucks. This is what makes value betting correct: So say you are ahead 60% of the time that you bet and he calls. Say he is folding 20% of the time and has the flush or J (or some other wierd monster) 20% of the time. You are winning one bet 60 times and lossing two bets 20 times for a net gain of 20 bets. If you check and he bets with a J or flush you are losing 40 bets if he only bets these hands. I dont think he will be betting a worse hand than yours more than 60% which is what you need in order to make a check call correct. Sorry for being so long winded all I'm saying is VALUE BET. I don't know the exact numbers but they are close I'm sure. Value betting is the bread and butter of 2/4 against these idiots.

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no big deal. i clarified in my original i thought "well played". i just offer other thoughts to consider even if they are wrong. okay the question is then : if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand?

[Bob T.]

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if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand?

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Yes, sometimes he will have two worse pair than yours, and every once in a while, he will be betting on a complete bluff. I know this doesn't look like a good board to bluff into, but it happens anyway.

[SeaEagle]

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- you lose 2BBs when up against trips Jacks (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against AJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against KJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against a flush (15%)

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I think these numbers are extremely conservative. 1.4PFA is pretty aggressive for a 58%VPIP. This guy is not waiting till the river to raise trip jacks unless he has a
FH. I think you'd be surprised just how often villian is showing down Ax, Kx, or even a small PP in this hand.

[Nick C]

I like the river bet.

I wouldn't be happy about getting raised, but I would call, hoping my LAGgy opponent is bluff-raising the scare card or has a hand like A3 for three-pair.

Or maybe he's been "slowplaying" just an ace or 77 all this time. I guess I'm probably giving Villain too little credit, but I do wonder sometimes what some LAGs are thinking when I see the plays they make.

[BigBiceps]

I would check-call the river.

My river aggression is very low though, I need to work on that.

I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call.

[SeaEagle]

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I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3.

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It's not that the 3 improved an A3. It's that A3 is chopping with all the other A's except AK and AJ. It is not unreasonable for a semi-donk to raise A3 here. In fact, there wouldn't have to be a very big chance for my opponent to fold another Ax (especially AK) for me to raise this board with A3 (and by "me" I mean the prototypical semi-donk).

[McGahee]

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I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call.

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I agree - bet/fold > check/call > bet/call.

[Rootabager]

check call river

[Jake (The Snake)]

wow, some of the responses to this thread are terribly weak.

you MUST bet this river