An old Ed Miller quote - EV vs. Variance

[DMBFan23]

Hey guys,
A post of his from WAY back in the day, I searched the archives for it cause I needed a quote on pot odds that I remembered him using, and I thought it would be useful for this post in the magazine forum

I read the rest of the post just because it's NPA, and I really really liked this and it was a novel idea when I first read about it, so here it is.

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Also, I agree with him wholeheartedly in this particular RGP thread. Yes, almost no one seems to understand how variance/EV/win rate/CV work. And yes, basically all of the adjustments that people make to "lower their variance" are actually just shooting themselves in the foot.

99% of the time when someone says, "I try to keep my variance low," or, "I avoid making risky plays/raises to protect my bankroll," I hear, "I don't really understand limit hold 'em." It's that simple.

None of the best players I know make these adjustments. None. If you don't believe me, talk to the outstanding players who frequent this forum: Clarkmeister, El Diablo, Paluka, etc.

That's not to say that, IN THEORY, such an adjustment must be wrong. Overbetting your bankroll is a real issue in other gambling games like blackjack and sports betting. But IN PRACTICE, when you play LIMIT HOLD 'EM, there are not really any reasonable places to "adjust" your game to lower your risk of ruin. Any adjustments to "non-optimal" play you make basically lower your winrate too much for their corresponding loss of variance, dropping your CV and increasing your risk of ruin.

That's why I'm so adamant about emphasizing that poker is a gambling game. You are gonna have some serious losing streaks if you play a lot of poker. It's gonna hurt. There are no major adjustments you can make to change that or soften the blow. Suck it up or find a new game.

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Peace,
Kevin

[sfer]

He posted a similar thing in General HE earlier calling something like "The rareness of bets in limit Hold 'Em."

[DMBFan23]

earlier than my post, or earlier today? Hmm I'll search for that

[car ramrod]

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That's why I'm so adamant about emphasizing that poker is a gambling game. You are gonna have some serious losing streaks if you play a lot of poker. It's gonna hurt. There are no major adjustments you can make to change that or soften the blow. Suck it up or find a new game.



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I really like this part. This should be quoted more often around here.

[BigBrother]

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It's gonna hurt.



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You got that right.

[Paxosmotic]

I'm glad we've grown past that mentality, because to me, the "I try to keep my variance low" idea is absurd. The key to winning the most is pushing the tiniest most microscopics of edges. When we're having a particularly shittastic night and the cards aren't coming, the edges we're pushing blow up in our face and result in what? Larger downswings. My bankroll graph looks like a cardiac arrest from all the swings of my bets and raises, but you know what, it goes up pretty quickly when god's not making fun of me, so I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.