Folding QQ on Flop

PJM1206 · #1 07-18-2005, 11:16 AM

Ok wimp or what? No reads this was players 3rd hand. Player only sat for a total of 3 hands so... no idea.

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 6 folds, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

I figured that for him to raise UTG and then cap my riase he had to have AK, AA, KK, QQ but I realize there are other hands he could also have but just sitting down as he did I fgured he had the stronger of the hands. I didnt want to check and call all the way down. I had no re-draws like Qd so if he had QQ he held the diamond so I loose to anyhting but JJ and again even JJ with J diamond or any pair with diamond I am looking like I will beat. Thus the fold

Rosencrantz1 · #2 07-18-2005, 11:35 AM

He may very well have been ahead of you on the flop. However, he may have had many hands that the flop missed or that only hit slightly (e.g., AK). In those cases, he is as scared of the flush as you are and, since you have position, you missed an opportunity to raise him on the flop and see what happened. If he raised back, then maybe you do fold. However, if he called your raise on the flop he may very well have given you a free card on the turn.

I think the laydown to one bet in a big pot on the river is too weak/tight. I would raise.

jrz1972 · #3 07-18-2005, 11:47 AM

Looks routine. With the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] this would be a call, obviously, but even if we give villain a fairly broad "raise and cap" range, we're still behind more hands than we're ahead, and even if we're currently ahead villain may have a strong draw against us.

If villain had JJ, TT, 99, or KQ, fine he got us. But calling down is going to cost us 2.5 BBs just to be shown AK. Is it worth 2.5 BBs to try to win 7.75? I don't think you're good that often.

deception5 · #4 07-18-2005, 11:49 AM

Good fold.

evans075 · #5 07-18-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He may very well have been ahead of you on the flop. However, he may have had many hands that the flop missed or that only hit slightly (e.g., AK). In those cases, he is as scared of the flush as you are and, since you have position, you missed an opportunity to raise him on the flop and see what happened. If he raised back, then maybe you do fold. However, if he called your raise on the flop he may very well have given you a free card on the turn.

I think the laydown to one bet in a big pot on the river is too weak/tight. I would raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this!! You will be shocked at how many times I've raised in this position and had UTG fold to me. Now if you are faced with a 3-bet, I'm dumping! A call, and a check on the turn I'm torn b/t taking a free card or betting out. I'm more towards the fee card b/c you very well could be against a slow played AA or a made flush (doubt the latter). Then again we are faced with if he has AA he to is afraid of the flush and hopes for the board to pair but he still isn't going to let them go. So after writing this down and thinking about it I've decided to raise the flop, fold to a 3-bed, and take a free card on the turn!

BruinEric · #6 07-18-2005, 12:03 PM

I would also fold this. IMHO, folding this fixes a major potential leak in players who are developing like me -- which is the inability to "get away" from big pairs in unfavorable situations.

And THIS is an unfavorable situation for all the reasons mentioned.

Even with a much larger field, I don't think it helps you. It would make it even more likely that you're drawing uber-slim because aside from the A, someone out there will have at least one diamond or two.

The only thing that may change this is if bettor has established a nutball bluffer reputation. I called a guy down yesterday with TPTK on a scary board with him going aggro on my bets/raises. He had TP w/useless kicker and I took the pot. It's a big learning step for me to get better at decoding "donkbets" and calling them down while eliminating MORE calldowns when I'm being valuebet.

BatsShadow · #7 07-18-2005, 12:08 PM

I like it. The diamonds does it for me. The ace pretty much sucks, but even if you are ahead, you are probably going to get drawn out on much of the time.

evans075 · #8 07-18-2005, 12:19 PM

I understand your "get away from big pairs" leak theory. But, a raise here would only put one BB in the pot and will show you just how you stand. If UTG 3-bets then its an easy dump. If UTG calls you've set yourself up for a fee card on the turn. I've had cases where I set up for a free card turn and UTG bets out again, Here you can also fold!! I just feel a little passive folding here. OP is there any reads on UTG this would make it alot clearer. I could drop this with out rasing his flop bet if I'm up aggainst a TAG, but definatly not a LAG or a LPP!

Aaron W. · #9 07-18-2005, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He may very well have been ahead of you on the flop. However, he may have had many hands that the flop missed or that only hit slightly (e.g., AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Heads up, TPTK is not a "hit slightly" hand. Barring another diamond, you can expect this to go to a showdown with Hero drawing to two outs. And if another diamond hits, you're probably going to fold anyway (at least, you should).

[ QUOTE ]
In those cases, he is as scared of the flush as you are and, since you have position, you missed an opportunity to raise him on the flop and see what happened.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless his kicker is a diamond, then he simply doesn't care. A curiosity flop raise here is bad for your bankroll. The liklihood of winning this pot right now for two small bets is very tiny (certainly less than 20%). So you're going to have to invest at least 4 SB (2 SB now, 1 BB on the turn) to try to steal this pot away. That means you're investing about 40% of the pot to win the pot. That's not so good.

[ QUOTE ]
If he raised back, then maybe you do fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't fold after getting 3-bet, then you shouldn't be raising in the first place.

[ QUOTE ]
However, if he called your raise on the flop he may very well have given you a free card on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not such a good thing. A free card on the turn isn't worth it because even if you get it 100% of the time, you're still not getting the right odds to play for it. Rethink this line because it makes absolutely no sense.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the laydown to one bet in a big pot on the river is too weak/tight. I would raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, we're talking about a flop bet. And we're talking about the compounding error of calling more bets after the flop. Fold now and save yourself the money and the hassle.

silvershade · #10 07-18-2005, 12:39 PM

I'd fold this without any real hesitation, you're behind to AA,KK and AK which are the likeliest capping hands pre-flop, even if hes got low capping standards I reckon you are behind most hands that he caps with. On top of this he may have the flush or a draw to it. Why wouldnt you lay this down?