KQs ...cautious river play

[pokerstudAA]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.


Button played decently and poster was new to the table.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, CO folds.

I was looking for the over call and did not want to put a nuch of extra bets in the pot on the river. I was hoping poster would bet his trips so I could ck-raise but the button bet was scary and unexpected. Over call - same pot little risk - Pop him for a raise?


Final Pot: 10.75 BB

[Spicymoose]

I just bet the river. The board is pretty scary, and who knows what CO has. He could be scared to bet (which in fact he was), and this could get checked through.

Once you check, I am not sure if I like calling for the overcall, or raising. If you raise, Button may not even call you, but if you call, CO might not either. I guess it is close. That is why I like betting the river. If I can get CO to raise me with his straight, that would be awesome.

[jph0424]

I bet out on this river also because the board is scary and you do not want this getting checked through. After you check I raise this river because button will call here almost every time in a pot that size and every now and then CO may call 2 cold.

Raise the river. An overcall only nets you 1BB. Raising nets you 1BB as well. All things equal, it's much more likely the bettor will call your raise than someone will overcall because they've shown they have a hand they liked enough to bet. If you're lucky, you get 3BB as both call.

[mscags]

I raise this river every time here. Overcalls are only profitable if you think more money can be made from them. In this situation it is not the case.

Risk? You think he has a boat? What the hell? I bet out on the river, 1) because I don't expect Jackass McGee to be able to resist putting in a raise with an 8, but he often won't 3 bet if c/red and 2) CO could very likely have been betting some weak draw which I don't expect him to bet into 2 opponents on the river and there are some weak paired hands that will check behind.

[mute]

I bet out here. CO might just have been taking a stab at it with a weakish hand, and even if he has something the spade might scare him. If you check, you should definitely be doing it with the intention to check/raise. No reason to suspect CO isn't calling, so you're not really gaining anything by an overcall. (You avoid paying off to a full house, but that's pretty unlikely.)