Jackpot Jay's Prop Bet

[colgin]

"I have a proposition bet for anyone interested: You pick who you believe are the 10 best players in the world, and I'll give you even money that none of them makes the final table of the main event by the time the 2012 London Olympics conclude."

Any takers. The full article is:

HERE

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
"I have a proposition bet for anyone interested: You pick who you believe are the 10 best players in the world, and I'll give you even money that none of them makes the final table of the main event by the time the 2012 London Olympics conclude."

Any takers. The full article is:

HERE

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd take that bet in a second.

[adanthar]

As would I.

Interesting that only 8% of the players make money.

[arod15]

I call

[valenzuela]

Joe deposits $50, Joe loses $50. Joe never plays online poker again.
Ok so we have 10 players who will play 7 main events. thereby a great player will play the main event 70 times. Thereby Jackpot Jay is right. Dont take the bet.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Joe deposits $50, Joe loses $50. Joe never plays online poker again.
Ok so we have 10 players who will play 7 main events. thereby a great player will play the main event 70 times. Thereby Jackpot Jay is right. Dont take the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're confused.

[freemont]

[ QUOTE ]
As would I.

Interesting that only 8% of the players make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I found that interesting as well, though I wonder how much that is skewed by the people who decide to give online poker a try, lose their deposit and never come back. There really is no opposite side as we all know the guy who gives it a whirl and doubles (or more) his stake won't quit until it's all gone or he's world champion...

What would be more interesting is percentage of winning players that played more than say 400 hours a year (or some other arbitrary number that makes you a regular player.) It's just hard to believe that at a full ring game on average less than 1 person is making money...

[slickpoppa]

First of all, I love how people are responding to this like it is an obvious call. Lets do some math before we jump to any conclusions. There are 7 world series between now and then, so there are 63 final table seats. Lets be conservative and say that only 5,000 people play on the main event every year.

For a second lets assume that the 10 pros are just as likely as the field to make the final table. In that case the probability that none of the ten pros makes the final table is (4990*4989*4988*4987*4986*4985*4984*4983*4982) / (5000^9) = 0.975. The probability of this happening 7 years in a row is (.975)^7 = 0.838.

Onviously in order for the bet against Jackpot Jay to be correct, this number has to be lower than .5. The key variable to play with is the probability of those pros making the final table. If we assume that the pros are twice as likely to make the final table, then the probability of none of them making a final table is still .738. If the probability of them making the final table is three times as likely, the probability of none of them making the final table is still .669. Four times: 0.573.

So anyone who thinks betting against Jay is a good bet needs to believe that those pros are greater than 4 times more likely to make a final table than an average player. Especially considering that fields may get bigger and that some of the pros you pick now may die, not play, be in jail, etc., I'll take Jay's side of the bet.

[wayabvpar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, as it turns out, there is one group that can -- and does -- track this kind of stat, though they are not about to publicize the results. That group consists of online poker site management, two members of which revealed to me at the WSOP that what intuition suggests must be true -- only 8 and 7 percent, respectively, of all players on their sites finish the year in the black. And I'm not talking about deep in the black, either. The vast majority of those winners are not about to give up their day jobs.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is just stunning to me. I suddenly feel like I am much better at poker than I originally thought [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I would have guessed closer to 30% or so.

[Quicksilvre]

Knowing how much more likely a pro will make it to the final table than an amateur is almost impossible to quantify. It seems like a aure thing that a pro ought to be more likely to make it, but how much more is anyone's guess. I would guess five times as likely, but it's just a stab in the dark.

If it is true, then the bet is about even money. However, as mentioned, there's no telling what can happen between now and then. Gambling for a living isn't exactly an easy living; you could easily pick ten pros and have only eight or none still alive by 2012.