|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
[ QUOTE ]
That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling. [/ QUOTE ] I hear you on the flop of course, but getting it all-in on the turn is another kettle of fish in my view. As you point out, you probably are calling, but that doesn't mean that it is a good spot to be in. Put another way, if you bet the turn, you are not hoping that Villain pushes. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
I think this is a raise here to like 1200 or so and I'm not even sure if I could fold if he came back over the top. When you check the turn it looks like a draw, the river raise might just seem like a missed draw and he might call a raise with a wide range of hands. It gets kind of sticky if he puts in a reraise, and then I guess it depends if he might do this as a rebluff thinking you have a missed diamond draw without the ace of diamonds.
Betting the turn here isn't so bad an idea as it disgusies your hand more (more of a chance of being paid off on the river) and you don't have that bad a hand against a laggy player. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
apart from the unpleasantness resulting from a reraise i think there is definitely value in a raise. unless its the case that you never bluff the hand has played out in such a way that its pretty easy for you to have no hand whatsoever. its also pretty easy for him to not have much of a hand. given that he ought to be able to recognize all this he may interpret the river action as you bluffing which would allow him to call with all sorts of hands.
the amount of money left in play makes things ugly enough that i can understand not raising here if he is likely enough to put you to a decision that your not sure about. each of you has a wide enough hand range that the possibility of the two of you being on different pages as far as what hands are likely can complicate things. what im getting at is could he have a worse 2 pair and think your raising an A and think he is reraising for value with a worse hand. this scenario may be completely impossible given how the two of you play, i dont know, but my point is im not that sure what he is likely to interpret a river raise to mean. this means im less sure how to interpret a river raise from him which makes the decision pretty unpleasent. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
dude. post more. seriously.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
was thinking the same thing. great posts.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
hey man,
as others have already alluded to, there's a lot to this hand that depends on info very specific to the dynamic between you and villain (what does he think of you, what does he think you think of him, etc.)......also important is not just that he's "aggro" or "tricky", but what his specific tendencies are..... for example.....is he aggro in the sense that he likes to checkraise a lot with nothing on the turn?....in this case I'd agree with you that a weak bet might've been nice on the turn.....or, is he tricky in the sense that he might make some loose preflop calls, but then generally won't make a big checkraise without the goods?....or, does he like to bluff the river if you check the turn?.....or, is his river bet always for value?.....will he call a raise with worse hands?.....does he think you're capable of a bluff-raise?...you see where I'm going..... stack sizes are somewhat an issue, but not really that much....reason being, I think you have more than enough left to make a river raise without being committed (i.e. - if you make it 1200 you could still comfortably fold to a push)...I agree with what CWL said about the fact that you do sometimes need to make some seemingly brave value bets against these hot shots and not just shell up and call when you have a strong hand......I disagree with him though about the range that villain would push all-in with after your river raise.....I think there's a very low probability that villain pushes with any worse hand.....even if he thinks you could have AK, he's also not a donk and he knows you could have three aces or the nuts, etc. so I don't think he pushes with 97/etc.......a lot of people need to remember that this is a live game and not online - players tend to not overplay their hands as much..... |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
Hi Coltrane - Yeah, all of that stuff is definitely important, but this table had been going about 10 minutes, and the last time I had played with villain was probably a year ago, so I didn't have the specific info I would have on guys I play with more regularly.
Your last paragraph and everything CWL said is right on. CWL - That situation you refer to - the one that's almost the opposite of bluffing with the best hand - when he reraises because he thinks he has me beat w A4 is exactly where I was in the hand. I didn't know where he thought he was, and subsequently didn't know where I was. Also, the river reverse tell thing looked a lot like real strength to me. |
|
|