Questionable Turn Fold (Sexy)

Roland19 · #1 08-31-2005, 08:13 PM

After two orbits, villian seems to be a reasonable, passive player, but I can't be 100% sure, or even 75% sure, for that matter. I'm in the middle of a huge downswing at 2/4 right now and I'm trying to cut back on making river calls where I"m obviously beat and not continuing in hands where it is readily apparent that I am most likely drawing dead. Please tell me this is standard. I fear that this downswing has turned me into a weak-tight woman.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds...

W. Deranged · #2 08-31-2005, 08:16 PM

I will refrain from making an immediate judgment, but I will note:

1. The pot is still pretty small.

2. About half the cards in the deck are cards you won't want to see on the river.

pokergrader · #3 08-31-2005, 08:20 PM

I would fold this if I had a read on MP1 and he was really passive. It is an interesting bet though, and without a read I would call it down not only for value, but to see exactly what he is donking with.

I also am folding this pre-flop, but having some extra money in the pot already helps your cause. QTs and JTs I would play, but in my mind Q9s is pushing it.

W. Deranged · #4 08-31-2005, 08:22 PM

I think that limping with this preflop in late position behind two limpers and with some dead money is pretty standard. Folding here is probably giving up too much, in my opinion, unless there is significant fear that we'll get raised behind (like on of those behind us is a lag).

Roland19 · #5 08-31-2005, 08:27 PM

I would really like to call down here as well, and probably would, if this were heads up. However, I have 2 others yet to act if I call on the turn. I think this turns this to a fold, but I'm not sure if it's close or not.

And also, I don't think preflop is an issue. This pot is going to be multiway, and I have a suited two gap with relatively ok high card value. I usually also play this in EP. If I am wrong in my thinking here, let me know, because I'm looking to plug any and all leaks, and I do seem to play a lot of hands preflop. I have a VPIP of about 20.5.

TimM · #6 08-31-2005, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I also am folding this pre-flop, but having some extra money in the pot already helps your cause. QTs and JTs I would play, but in my mind Q9s is pushing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play Q8s here without hesitation, and I am tight PF.

pokergrader · #7 09-01-2005, 12:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also am folding this pre-flop, but having some extra money in the pot already helps your cause. QTs and JTs I would play, but in my mind Q9s is pushing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play Q8s here without hesitation, and I am tight PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, after a few PS simulations, Q8s and Q9s are both slightly +EV in this situation (top 35%, top 40%, random, random). Q7s is slightly -EV in the same simulation, but barely.

I'll give it to you.

sy_or_bust · #8 09-01-2005, 12:21 AM

You can't reliably use applications like PokerStove to solve for correct preflop play, especially not when you have position in a multiway pot.

There are scenarios where a preflop raise would be best play here, but PS isn't going to tell you anything more than showdown equity against some vaguely accurate hand ranges.

Roland19 · #9 09-01-2005, 02:56 AM

I didn't post this hand so that we could discuss trivial preflop issues. Is this or is this not a sound and routine turn fold. I think this hand warrants some discussion and I would like to hear what more of you think about my play.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

#10 09-01-2005, 04:03 AM

Is raising here crazy, (obviously folding to a reraise)? If he has a made flush a bit more than half the time, would't it be worth it? How often do you think he has a made flush?

The purpose of a raise is obviously to make overcards without the A og K of clubs fold, to increase the chance to make it through the river when we are ahead on the turn. Sometimes (but very rarely) we might even take the pot down if he is betting a lone Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I would have a hard time folding here, but that might not mean its a bad idea. If I knew the player to be passive and not tricky, I would fold though.