Good thread on slightly +EV all ins?

[zoobird]

Is it safe to assume that most of those 'better situations' are going to be ones where I'm putting my money in post-flop?

[zoobird]

Hypothetical question: Lets saying I've got QQ and I know my opponent has AK. Its early in a tournament. I know that my opponent will call whatever I raise, but won't fold or re-raise under any circumstances. I also know I'm above average among the players in the tournament, but not necessarily one of the very best. Do I want all my chips in because this is about the best I can hoep for? Or might I want to bet a smaller amount (lets say 1/3 of my chips or 1/2 my chips) and save the rest for a similar situation to reduce variance by 'diversifying' across several hands? Are situations this favorable just so infrequent that I absolutely need to maximize each one?

[stokken]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ vs AK is the 'slightly +EV' and that's not even that slight, i'll take it every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would u also take it if the table was turned? With explanation as to why or not, and what circumstances it would take to change your mind

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple weeks ago some of the stronger players recorded all their tournament results here in a spreadsheet...I think you may have participated. I didn't calculate it, but it sure looked like there were a number of people who were WAY over 10% ITM. Are you saying that this was just because of the small sample size?

[/ QUOTE ]i think too small of a sample size

[Vancity82]

Does anyone have a link to the thread with this spreadsheet? Thanks

The normal 10-15 minute blind online tournaments usually don't allow for much play past the middle stages of the tournament, when a majority of the people's M are in the "yellow/orange" zone. 13-10 coinflips are certainly not the -best- you can hope for, there will definatly be situations where you will be milking chips with good hands, and situations where you dominate short stacks with higher pairs, better ace, etc, but in MTT's specifically, it -often- comes down to at LEAST one crucial coin flip. Doesn't mean it always has to play out that way, but to give yourself a chance at winning an MTT, you have to be willing to accept that. Even if you are the best player in the world, these tournaments often do not have enough play in them due to structure as to where your superior skill will overcome the chips you didn't acquire through the coinflip had you have won.

[TomHimself]

site with the week challenge data. must register on site to view

edit- you can login as a guest and view
edit2- people need to learn to use the search feature

[Exitonly]

yea that challenge was a small sample size..but for all the tournaments combined i think the ITM% for the group was actually below 10%... not sure about that and too lazy to check.. but there was a lot of no cashing going on.

[zoobird]

I just checked. By my count, there were 117 ITM finishes out of 516 tournaments entered. So a little over 20% ITM.