|
|
#2
10-26-2005, 04:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
Probability of being dealt AA: C(4,2) / C(52,2) = 0.004525
Probability of not being dealt AA: 1 - 0.004525 = 0.995475 Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. 
|
|
#4
10-26-2005, 05:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often.
|
|
#5
10-26-2005, 05:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often. [/ QUOTE ] Something about springy claws of variance....
|
|
#6
10-30-2005, 04:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often. [/ QUOTE ] If God truly hated his friend the time he finally got AA he would lose to a fish holding 72 offsuit.
|
|
#7
10-30-2005, 04:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. [/ QUOTE ] just for interest, not hitting it for 500 hands is 11%..... and i think i'm on that run right now.... not sure what the point of my comment is. but thanks for posting.
|
|
#8
10-31-2005, 05:19 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. [/ QUOTE ] Now, unless I'm wrong, the odds against getting AA twice in a row is (1/221)^2 = .0000204 or .00204%. The reason I'm getting at this is that stuff like this happens fairly regularly given the number of hands most of us play. So, a streak of 1500 hands without AA isn't really that noteworthy.
|
|
#9
10-31-2005, 07:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
It happened to me once about a month or so ago. It was about 1700 hands in a row w/o AA. I finally got it and lost my stack. Be careful what you wish for as they say.
|
|
#10
11-01-2005, 06:57 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
I believe the odds to get AA is every 225 or 227 hands. So you should get it 6 times in 1500 hands.
The odds to flop a set are 8.5-1, 2 in every 17 hands, 3 in 25. I got a PP 25 times playing live today and didn't hit a set and, after being extremely frustrated experiencing that, fully expect the same thing may happen tomorrow.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
