Moving up to $50 NL, a couple hands for review

[Rasputin]

I've been getting completely bitchslapped at the $50NL on FullTilt to the point where in 552 hands (miniscule, I know) I have lost half what I made in 8700 hands of $25 NL and I'd like to toss out a few of the big ones for commentary.

Is it me or is it variance?

$50 NL, in the small blind with QJc.

One poster in addition to the BB and two limpers to me. I complete, BB checks. Five players, $2.50 in the pot.

Flop 7c Tc 9h

Hmm, straight draw and flush draw and two overcards.

I bet $1, fold, raise to $2, call call, and I call.

Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh

Top pair, jack kicker, plus straight draws and flush draws.

I bet $10 which is about pot sized, and get three callers.

Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh Qd

Top set. I push, next guy pushes, third guy calls, fourth guy folds.

I lose to the guy who raised the flop bet who had QTo

Did I misplay that? Should I have assumed that if four people were willing to call a pot sized bet on the turn that at least one of them would already have a set beaten?

Second hand, I get aces in UTG+1 and raise preflop to $1.5 get three callers including the small blind, $6.50 in the pot.

Flop comes Ah, 8h, 3h

I say crap but don't want to assume I'm beat already and bet pot after two checks...fold, fold, call.

Turn gives us Ah, 8h, 3h, 2d

I bet pot again. It felt wrong when I did it because I thought the chances were very strong that he already had the flush but I told myself I had ten outs if he did. He pushed.

There's $59 in the pot and effectively a $26.35 bet to me as that's what I had left. So it was $26.35 to win $85.35 which is about 3.25:1. With three eights, treys, and deuces plus another ace, I have ten outs out of 44 cards for 3.44:1 or slightly bad odds. If there's any chance he's bluffing, don't I have to call? Should I assume that the case ace (or some of my other outs) is/are out already since there were four callers? Should I assume that some of the hearts are out already thus making my odds better?

I fully understand that five hundred some odd hands is a pathetically tiny sample size and it's entirely possible that this is simple variance. These two hands account for almost half my losses at this level.

So, how much of this was bad play and how much the dark side of variance?

[Rasputin]

Bumpage...annyone care to comment even to tell me to shut the hell up because they're bad beats or to shut the hell up because I'm an idiot?

On the first hand I wouldn't bet the pot on turn because there is a 3 possible straights, if you get reraised there, you basicly ruin your pot odds to make your flush or tie the straight. Assuming that many people call the bet, u shouldn't push the river. maybe bet 10$-15$ or just check.

On the second hand I think you have to call him but it looks like he has a made flush.

[kurto]

I think you could have played the hand differently on every street. Though the results may have been the same, you would have had fold equity.

On the flop- First, I don't recommend betting a dollar into a $2.50 pot. That's a weak bet. When you were min-reraised and had 2 callers, you know want to make a REAL bet. Don't call that wussy 3 bet. You have a MONSTER draw. You want to push out people who might have a better flush draw. And, you want to get more money in because if a club hits (and possibly your straight) you might not get any more money out of your opponents. You should realize at this point, you are a huge favorite over your opponent's hand (and I believe over most hands except a set). There's $8.50 in the pot when it comes back to you, you should re-raise it an additional $10 at the very least . You should be happy to get all your money in at this point. Furthermore, you are out of position, you should be happy get the money in now when you're ahead or take down the pot uncontested. If you took down a 16BBpot OOP with a draw, you can be happy.

2) Now, on the turn, when you have 3 callers and 2 possible straights have made it, you bet? Having played the flop the way you did, you should now be slowing down and hoping for a cheap river.

3) Why go all in? You're only going to be called by someone who already has a set or a fullhouse?

Hand 2- that's one of the toughest spots to be in... top set on a monotone board. But first, I recommend you (always) raise more preflop. On most tables, a 3xbb raise is meaningless and does nothing. Make your standard raise at least 4xbb +1 for each limper. Some people's standard raise is higher. Unless you're very cautious and good at postflop play, you'd rathar not play your hands against 4 people (unless you have a good multiplayer hand like suited connectors)... raise more.

That being said, most people lose their stack in these situations. The only hand that beats you is a made flush. You can try betting less then the full pot. Also... if he checked to you and you suspect he has the flush, then take the free card.

But... most would lose their stack here.

So... hand 1, not so good. hand 2... just a tough situation.

[fathertime]

Hand 2--there have been quite a few posts recently on top or second set on a monotone board both in ss and mh; one of them was mine. Search for these posts and you will find that basically most of the time you will be a 2-1 favorite; sometimes a 2-1 dog. And so pot the flop, if raised 3bet all in--sometimes you'll stack off to the flush; sometimes you'll suck out against the flush; but most often you'll beat a weaker hand.

Hand 1--there are also quite a few posts on flush and oesd hands. Search for these. The basic line there is pot the flop; if raised, 3 bet all in.

Hand 1, you bet $1 on flop. Then you bet $10 on turn card.

Strange pattern. Only thing I saw that looked abnormal.

[Rasputin]

Thanks for the comments everyone

[rikz]

Hand 1- Bet $3 into the pot and try to take it down on the flop. If raised, re-raise by pot-size. Unless you have a huge read that a villain would NEVER raise you without a set, your hand is best for getting money in while you still have two cards to come. If 2-pair wants to go all-in with you on the flop, that's ok with me. I don't like min-bet then call a min-raise on a flop with a huge draw out of position.

2- You're play looks ok. I lose my stack with top set and monotone board if villain flopped a flush. If you suspect a flush based on a read of villain, I suppose you could risk a check on the turn to see if you fill up on the river. But that cuts both ways since it might be a fourth flush card letting any Xh suck out on you.