empire 55r JJ facing raise

[schwza]

villain in this hand had been about average in terms of pre-flop raising. probably 50 left, 20 cash. i've been opening more than my share, but have mostly been getting away with it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t23462)
CO (t14469)
Button (t5518)
SB (t10515)
BB (t11977)
UTG (t5424)
UTG+1 (t6590)
MP1 (t17125)
Hero (t11130)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t1100</font>, Hero

edit: punch up subject

[tripp0807]

Pop to 3500 call a push.

[Rizen]

[ QUOTE ]
Pop to 3500 call a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty bad line, and I hope you understand why. Raising 33% of your chips with JJ is, generally speaking, a bad play. I like the flat call others suggested (and that Hero took).

I'm with Sam T. somewhat in that I'm almost more scared on this flop that there was no cont bet or bet period on that flop. I'm almost more scared by the lack of action on this flop than I would be by a bet. Depending on the opponents I might consider firing a half pot bet, but more likely here I'm checking to see how things develop.

On the turn I hate that it's MP1 that bets into you. I really don't think you can flat call here because you're giving up way too many chips when someone else raises behind you, and you have two players left to act. Perhaps this is weak/tight, but I probably fold this and wait for a better spot, although I wouldn't hate pushing here either.

FWIW I also don't hate a push PF, although I think pushing PF is a high variance play with your stack. Very good hand for discussion though, JJ in a multi-way pot == tough!

-Rizen

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with Sam T. somewhat in that I'm almost more scared on this flop that there was no cont bet or bet period on that flop. I'm almost more scared by the lack of action on this flop than I would be by a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? how often do you cbet air in a 4way pot with a coordinated flop? i usually play those honest: bet if i connected, check otherwise. and if i had AK or KK, i bet every time because i don't want to give free gutshots + flush draws everywhere.

[Rizen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm with Sam T. somewhat in that I'm almost more scared on this flop that there was no cont bet or bet period on that flop. I'm almost more scared by the lack of action on this flop than I would be by a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? how often do you cbet air in a 4way pot with a coordinated flop? i usually play those honest: bet if i connected, check otherwise. and if i had AK or KK, i bet every time because i don't want to give free gutshots + flush draws everywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken, I have to agree with you here. Although I think if this is correct, it's an arguement for betting the flop.

-Rizen

Shameless plug for my poker blog:

http://rizenpoker.blogspot.com

[schwza]

it's checked through on the river (i hesistated before even posting that as a seperate decision point). pfr has 88, MP3 has TT, and SB has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a missed river c/r.

after thinking more about it, i agree that the turn should have been a fold. there are a million things that can go wrong, including getting bluffed off the best hand somewhere along the way.

thanks for comments everyone. comments on all streets still welcome.

Wait, who is going to bluff you out on the river? Only real scare cards are spades, diamonds, Qs, and As. That's like 20 cards (not including the Js, Jd). And your opponents don't have to have flush draws or an unpaired Q or A in their hands. I'd like to hear more about the argument for folding on the turn. Even though i'm a weak tightie, I'd call the turn bet. You said it yourself, almost every hand that MP1 holds that beats you on the flop will bet the flop. Same for MP3. The SB might've been going for a checkraise w/ a king or a set, but more often than not, after you call the turn bet, MP3 will fold, SB will fold, river will come, and MP1 will probably check everything you beat, including AQ air, on the river. If he bets river, then you'd probably have to fold. But I think you're ahead on the turn a good % of the time. Am I missing something here?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think you can flat call here because you're giving up way too many chips when someone else raises behind you, and you have two players left to act

[/ QUOTE ]

there aren't that many made hands that SB is going to check twice. i think he needs to have K9/99/KK/22 to take that line with something strong. similarly i thought MP3 was pretty much giving up on the hand by checking behind on a coordinated flop.

[adanthar]

I'd have either bet the flop or folded the turn.

Betting the flop is risky but doable. Because you have jacks, KJ is unlikely, and AK usually reraises, so only KQ is a likely hand here (actually since it's Empire, they're all unlikely). I don't terribly mind checking, but I bet specifically because I don't want to deal with that kind of turn.

So you check, a king comes, and MP1 bets. He either has QQ or TT, with a slight but significant chance of AK/air. You've a somewhat over 50% chance of being behind to him alone, and there are 2 others in with two flush draws, plus he's betting into 3 of you. Oh, and you can't call a river bet. I just fold this.

The river's an autocheck if you get that far.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you have jacks, KJ is unlikely, and AK usually reraises, so only KQ is a likely hand here (actually since it's Empire, they're all unlikely). I don't terribly mind checking, but I bet specifically because I don't want to deal with that kind of turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

huh? i don't get that whole paragraph.

[ QUOTE ]
He either has QQ or TT, with a slight but significant chance of AK/air

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a missed c/r flush draw is possible. i also think that air is less likely than you do. AQ/AJ/AT will sometimes perk up and take a stab here.