Push crap or wait a hand?

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Eastbay,

Nice post.

[ QUOTE ]
Working this out with the extra variables of a big stack and two shorter stacks (and all that implies) is left as an exercise for the reader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice finish.

BLP

[johnny005]

I'm running things through ICM and I notice that ICM is saying that with SB's range as tight which It would normally be, and BB's set too loose this is a +EV play.. But I think in this situation you realy need to be pretty dead on with your calling ranges if sb loosens up at all beyond TT+,AQs+,Ako+ then things become break even or worse. The big stack is going to call with alot of hands here.
But if you do get called and win your in nice position to go for 1st. This is one tough spot.

[lastchance]

Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.

I am too tight here, but I am very confident that folding this is correct, especially considering your FE is nil.

[tshort]

Why would you disregard the actual stack for this problem?

How can you say that .2% ICM towards not folding is "quite clear" for folding now?

I think it is clear the actual stack sizes will lean towards pushing the next hand. 45suited's point of the SB possibly pushing will change the results. With your assumptions, you've given a .2% ICM edge to pushing on the button rather than waiting. The possibility of the SB pushing and losing would give the edge to waiting a hand.

I disagre that people will loosen their calling ranges when he pushes UTG. It is a $10+1. I would make no assumptions as to how players at a $10+1 will reason. They will just as likely view him pushing on the button as an attempt to steal the blinds.

Looking at the actual problem, I think it is a clear fold. First, the SB should push a good number of hands if you fold. Assume SB will push 30% of the time and BB will call 20% of the time. If the hands are on average a coin-flip, the SB will bust 3% of the time. A good player in the SB will push more often, therefore will bust more often than the 3% calculation.

Assuming, he fold and SB folds, stacks are now 1230, 1213, 4301, and 1256, with 4301 and 1256 to post SB and BB. I think the button will be much tighter than K-S 20%. It would be fair to put the BB and SB at calling with K-S top 20%, but even that might be a stretch. Also, I think you have more FE against the big stack if you wait a hand. It would take me to long to work out the exact equities, as I don't have a program such as yours (sorry, I'll buy it at some point).

The point is, when you judge the actual stack sizes in the problem I think it will be clear to wait a hand.

-tshort

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.

I am too tight here, but I am very confident that folding this is correct, especially considering your FE is nil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great point. So just taking 35o vs a random hand, 64% of the time, you will lose to the BB. Plus, there's the times that SB decides to call.

Granted, there is an extremely small chance that BB won't call. Or he may call and you double up.

But by doing this, roughly 2/3 times you will finish OOTM right then and there. Plus, there are the times that you fold and one of the other 3 shortstacks makes a move and busts. That never seems to be taken into account, and I don't know why since the possibility is very real in this situation.

If I'm the SB, I'm happier than a pig in [censored] that there is a 2+2 pushmonkey Button who is willing to let me fold ITM by pushing here.

[golfcchs]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree here. At the 11's the sb will call with almost any pair and probably most aces and broadways and I think big stack will call with top 75% or so. Fold this hand push next and hope other short stack gets knocked out.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Granted, there is an extremely small chance that BB won't call. .

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People almost always underestimate this chance.

[runner4life7]

If i knew the BB had a brain thats different. At the 10+1s i have no reason to believe he even knows what pot odds are.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If i knew the BB had a brain thats different. At the 10+1s i have no reason to believe he even knows what pot odds are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it fair to say that at an 11, the BB may be less likely to call, but that the SB is more likely to call than he would at a higher buy in?

Nottom is correct when he says that people underestimate the chances that BB folds here. I was guilty of that - he will fold on occassion but not enough IMO. I think we all agree that this spot sucks.

[runner4life7]

yeah i couldnt agree more that this spot sucks and at the 33s i would spend some time thinking but i think id still lean towards push depending on if the BB has shown that he is trying to get in the money or take 1st. If the SB calls I suckout on him anyways for calling when he shouldnt.