Thought processes during a hand - winner v loser

[pilchard]

10/20 online hand - 7 handed. Forgive me for the length of the post but I think it shows why poker is so profitable.

Here is the details of the hand (names changed to protect the innocent).

PLAYERS A-G, (PLAYER G is the dealer)
(Small blind posted by PLAYER A, big blind by PLAYER B, our hero PILCHARD is PLAYER E)

PRE-FLOP
PLAYER A posts blind, PLAYER B posts big blind, PLAYER C folds, PLAYER D folds, PILCHARD raises, PLAYER F folds, PLAYER G calls, PLAYER A calls, PLAYER B calls.

FLOP 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]
PLAYER A checks, PLAYER B checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G calls, PLAYER A calls, PLAYER B calls.

TURN 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] , 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]
PLAYER A checks, PLAYER B checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G calls, PLAYER A calls, PLAYER B calls.

RIVER 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] , 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] , 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]
PLAYER A checks, PLAYER B checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G folds, PLAYER A raises, PLAYER B folds, PILCHARD calls.

SHOWDOWN
PLAYER A shows [J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ,10 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] ]
PILCHARD shows [Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ,J [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] ]

PILCHARD WINS A NICE POT WITH HIS TOP PAIR.

Here is what I was thinking during the hand:
7 players. I have QJo. Two fold to me. It's not a great hand but it's well worth playing against this field. I'll bring it in with a raise. I'm expecting PLAYER G to call (he'll call everything) and both blinds to call but I think QJ has enough value to still play. (I would have folded JTo).

PLAYERS G,A and B call (no-one raises) so I'm pretty certain I'm not up against any big hands.

FLOP 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Top pair, got to be pretty happy with that. A bigger Q is possible (not many players here 3 bet KQ or AQ) but I'm pretty confident I have the best hand.

Checked to me (surprise surprise). I must bet. call, call, call.

Now this is a big drawing flop, flush, straight, overcards they are all there so I am looking for a real blank on the turn.

Turn 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Nice card. Checked to me. Now this is a situation where the collective number of outs might make me vulnerable but I have to follow up with a bet as I'm still happy I've got the best hand and it could buy me some more outs.

They all call again. Now I know they are all drawing. If there had been a raise (or checkraise) I'd have had a tough decision. This is a semibluffing type board but I'm pretty certain no-one has a big made hand purely because they would want to be charging the field and would have to raise.

Could do with a blank on the river

River 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] .
Couldn't have picked a better card.
Checked to me. Is my top pair highish kicker good? There are not many two pair combos out there (furthermore nobody has acted like they have two pair or a set). The 2 can not have helped anyone so a clear bet.

Fold, CHECK RAISE, fold.
Back to me. Time to think. He is now getting fruity on the river, but this raise makes no sense whatsoever. The 2 can't have helped him (would he have stayed in with 22 (probably) or called from the SB with T2s? (again yes)). There was no guarantee I would bet so would he go for a checkraise with a monster? This bet makes no sense I've got to call. Now I called pretty much straight away and he shows JTo. Afterwards I thought I should have raised, an important reason being that PLAYER G was small stacked by the end of the hand and this tends to lead players towards desperation.


Now I'll try and put myself in the mind of PLAYER A. This is what I think he was thinking.

Preflop.
I have JTo in the SB. Not great. Wouldn't mind limping in if there is a lot of limpers. Damn, PILCHARD (solid player) raises, that must mean big cards or a mid to high pair. PLAYER G calls, he always calls. I've only invested 5$ and it costs me 15$ more to call with only 55$ in the pot at the moment. I've got terrible position and I must be dominated. EASY FOLD. Wait a minute I'll call.

FLOP 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

I've second pair with a back door straight draw and a J high back door flush draw. My second pair (J) completes many straight draws. Should I bet. Unlikely to fold 3 players with this board. I should check and see what happens. PLAYER B checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G calls.

Ten small bets in the pot so I'm getting 10-1 on a call. So many of my outs are tarnished, I could even be drawing dead and the BB may be check raising. EASY FOLD. Wait a minute I'll call.

BB calls, phew glad he didn't raise.

Turn 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]
Well the flush didn't get there. 6 Big bets in the pot. Could I have the best hand? What if PILCHARD has AK and the others draws or weaker pairs. THIS POT COULD BE MINE. I'll check and see. PLAYER B Checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G calls, 8-1 on a call. PILCHARD would play this was with AK wouldn't he? Why I could have the best hand. I call.

A blank would be nice. BB calls, phew glad he didn't raise.

River 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]

There's the blank I was looking for.


I'll check it down and my T could be good. PLAYER B checks, PILCHARD bets, PLAYER G FOLDS (God I hate chasers).

I reckon PILCHARD was drawing. He may have missed. Should I call? Big pot, doesn't look like the BB has anything. I should call. Wait a minute. The BB could have a weak Q or a better T and I'll get him out with a raise. What's more I might get PILCHARD to fold his Q on the remote chance that he has actually got what he has been betting. I'm running out of money, I really need to win this pot. Yes that's what I'll do, I'll raise. PILCHARD is sure to fold if he only has one pair on the river now that a 2 has come and given the previous betting. PLAYER B FOLDS (God I hate chasers)

Damn PILCHARD called. I kind of thought he had a Q. Better go and rebuy!!!

Well at least that's what I hope he was thinking.