Taking a Coinflip in BB on the Absolute Bubble? ($109)

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes it a fold for me. If cashing meant anything to me in this spot, I'd fold.

[Yuv]

I call this almost everytime (unless I have a specific read on a guy). Is that a leak?

2 points:

1. If you are playing to WIN, it looks like a good call. His all in is probably weakness as a $2500 bet accomplishes the same result with less risk to the SB HOLDING a decent hand.

2. If playing to cash, just log out and leave thus totally eliminating any risk of not cashing.

[ QUOTE ]
i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know. A 12% equity swing. Pretty huge.

[Melchiades]

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Maybe this situation is too good to pass up on, that might be. But many here seems to have some sort of weird obsession about taking any +cEV play on the bubble. That can't be right? We play poker to win money, and if that means sometimes securing a place ITM when 60 out of 61 gets payed so be it. Playing to win and not to place means not going in check fold mode when we are closing the money and you think might be able to fold into the money. It doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong to pass up on +cEV right on the bubble.

Seems to be some sort of macho mantra on this forum "We play to win, not to get ITM!".

To me there is no if you play to win do this, and if you play to get ITM do that. We always make the play that will make us the most money. Sometimes that means passing on a +cEV play to get into the money.

[captainzodiac]

this is a tough spot,you're almost certainly up against 2 overs,so a slight favorite,anywhere but this spot,when i'm short stacked is an auto call,but 1 from the money short stacked is a spot i refuse to take coin tosses usually, just isn't wourth it,unless it was a much cheaper buy in,but here i'm most likely folding,not very happily!

[ QUOTE ]
1. If you are playing to WIN, it looks like a good call. His all in is probably weakness as a $2500 bet accomplishes the same result with less risk to the SB HOLDING a decent hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't is also possible that SB has a hand and is using the whole "he thinks that I think" line of reasoning? I know I do this sometimes with a made hand from the SB hoping to induce a call from the BB thinking he's picking off a steal with a hand like A-rag. There are plenty of people out there that would call with a weak hand, especially when they are short stacked, so why not give them the chance to hang themselves?

The difference between raising to 2500 and putting the BB in for his last 3000 is so miniscule that I don't see the SB simply raising here ever. It's a clear push for the SB. Holding any 2? Perhaps, but I'm not putting my whole tournament on the line with 55. If hero folds he still has 5BB which is enough to stage a comeback.

[adanthar]

In a vacuum, this call is undoubtedly -$EV (off the top of my head - you are guaranteed a bit under $218 plus [1/2 share below] if you fold; if you call and win, your stack is worth [share of total prize pool minus (60x218) because that money will be paid out]; if you lose, you get 0. You can do it from here and my eyeballed guess is you lose about $50-$100 on the call). The question is whether winning and getting a bigger stack gives you enough opportunities to overcome that initial disadvantage.

I would try to stall to see if anyone with less chips busted on the hand (no shame in that here IMO), but in the end I think this is a close fold/call with something like 88. FWIW, however, most top names would call here if the read is really 'any two'.

PS: In that HH, I folded A6o. I'd have called A9 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[WSOPstar2B]

What was the short stack amount? Any idea as to where you ranked? BTW, that is one thing I wish PP would change in their software. I luv the fact that on Paradise, UB & PS you know where you rank at all times.
If "losing 109" is not that big a deal for u & ur Bankroll, then call and gamble! But then if you fold the SB, u'll have 2700 left in chips. R u at a full table? W/61 left I would say NOT. So the blinds will be coming around fairly quickly unless someone goes out. Also how soon do the blinds increase? R they likely to do so b4 it comes around to you again? Then again is $236 needed by you bad enough to warrent wimping into the $.
One point I think that was overlooked. The SB is probably fully aware of the fact that 61 r left. THAT IS A GREAT TIME TO MAKE HIS MOVE! Cause no one likes being the bubble boy. So I would definitely call unless I had pretty much zilch in my account & couldn't reload it. (u r playing way above ur bankroll then!)
That's my 1/2 cent worth