WTF Bet... How often am I ahead here? (Stars $150)

MSUcougar · #1 10-28-2005, 09:33 PM

PokerStars Game #2917081705: Tournament #14116200, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/10/28 - 21:17:28 (ET)
Table '14116200 36' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: soop2nuts (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: ugaistheteam (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: ShuMoney (1620 in chips)
Seat 4: vargur (1710 in chips)
Seat 5: nightking111 (1410 in chips)
Seat 6: bedalis (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: J9 of clubs (1370 in chips)
Seat 8: MSUcougar (1480 in chips)
Seat 9: MMatzo (1500 in chips)
MSUcougar: posts small blind 10
MMatzo: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MSUcougar [9d 9h]
soop2nuts: folds
ugaistheteam: folds
ShuMoney: folds
vargur: calls 20
nightking111: calls 20
bedalis: folds
J9 of clubs: folds
MSUcougar: calls 10
MMatzo: checks
*** FLOP *** [3h 5s 2c]
MSUcougar: checks
MMatzo: checks
vargur: checks
nightking111: bets 240
MSUcougar: ???

OK, now obviously I could've led out on this flop, or raised PF... but I was mainly playing for set value, and once this flop came I checked first to act intending to go for a c/r...

Then a guy bets 3x the pot... this is like the 3rd hand of the tourney so no reads... what range of hands do you put LP limper on to make a bet like this on a flop like this?

Call/Raise/Fold?

DDBeast · #2 10-28-2005, 09:39 PM

Possible hands for him: 44 66-88 TT maybe AK,JJ+ total bluff. I think a set or straight is unlikely.
I might have led the flop but I think you're good here and would raise and call a push. Tough w/o reads.

scott8 · #3 10-28-2005, 09:40 PM

You have to fold.

LethalRose · #4 10-28-2005, 09:54 PM

Since nobody has shown any strength this is either a complete bluff or a very strong hand. I dont think this is a semibluff holding an ace and an overcard. I dont think top pair would do this either.

in an unraised pot here without any reads I dont think an overpair is strong enough to warrant making a move at this pot. Fold. You only have invested 2BB in this pot and you're facing a 12BB bet. you better be right A LOT.

adanthar · #5 10-28-2005, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You only have invested 2BB in this pot and you're facing a 12BB bet. you better be right A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be right exactly 50% of the time. Do you see why?

I'd call and lead a safe-ish turn. I think you have the best hand but in any event he'll let you know with his turn action.

#6 10-28-2005, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You only have invested 2BB in this pot and you're facing a 12BB bet. you better be right A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be right exactly 50% of the time. Do you see why?

I'd call and lead a safe-ish turn. I think you have the best hand but in any event he'll let you know with his turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry could someone explain that statement? Thanks.

LethalRose · #7 10-28-2005, 10:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You only have invested 2BB in this pot and you're facing a 12BB bet. you better be right A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be right exactly 50% of the time. Do you see why?

I'd call and lead a safe-ish turn. I think you have the best hand but in any event he'll let you know with his turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like calling here, thats just going to make a huge pot OOP and with no information on if hes behind or not. Hes either way ahead or way behind on the flop and he needs to decide on the flop before putting anymore money in there. calling and making any kind of bet is going to cripple him if he loses the pot. dont let opponents who do this with the nuts take your chips.

and if pushes this flop he better be right a lot to make it +EV. you are behind here more than 50% of the time, fold.

MSUcougar · #8 10-28-2005, 10:13 PM

I think I put him on either 66-JJ, a 5, or a donkey bluff here... I tend to just fold in spots like this, but is this the kind of hand I should be willing to get it in with (early in the tourney specifically)?

EverettKings · #9 10-28-2005, 10:15 PM

I fold. It's definitely a WTF bet, but you're out of position and don't know what cards are safe and the pot is getting big quickly. It's hard to continue without putting a huge chunk of your stack at risk. You can find much better spots.

I don't like calling and leading the turn. The pot will be t500 and you have like 1200, so how exactly do you lead and still get away from this? You don't have enough wiggle room to play very profitably from here IMO.

Everett

Pat Southern · #10 10-28-2005, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You only have invested 2BB in this pot and you're facing a 12BB bet. you better be right A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be right exactly 50% of the time. Do you see why?

I'd call and lead a safe-ish turn. I think you have the best hand but in any event he'll let you know with his turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like calling here, thats just going to make a huge pot OOP and with no information on if hes behind or not. Hes either way ahead or way behind on the flop and he needs to decide on the flop before putting anymore money in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, he's not way ahead or way behind, if the villain has something like AT then he has 10 outs. Second, if he was way ahead/way behind, he shouldn't be worried about giving a free card, and calling would be better, however that doesn't apply here. The only other options are raise or fold. Any raise pretty much cuts off half your stack or more, and if he pushes over your raise you're pretty clearly [censored] and have to fold, and it'd be pretty rare that any hand you beat calls your push. I dont think he's leading here with air enough and I would fold.