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#1
09-17-2005, 05:47 AM
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Hmm live AKs hand
This hand took place on the June Vegas trip. There is an important concept here that might not get touched on enough. I hope that it will push conventional micro thinking a bit.
The scene is the Wynn on a Thursday night. The game is not very good but I'm drunk and having a good time. I have not been playing many hands because the cards have been cold. I have also missed a few flops with big cards so I might appear weak at this point. The stakes are 4/8. By "not very good" I mean that play is reasonably tight and passive. I tend to like laggier games better so my perception could be off. I have a read on the villian but I will create a few scenarios here. Wynn 4/8 Las Vegas (9 handed) Dealer starts her deal and the first card lands face up...it is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero finds A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG. We raise and everyone folds to the BB who makes it 3-bets. We call. Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] The big blind bets and we call. Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The big blind bets. What is our play when... A) The villian is a typical ho-hum player (not fishy but not great). B) The villian is very good. At least as good as you are and views you as an overly tight (maybe weak) TAG. I have some thoughts here that may or may not be correct. I feel like there is an interesting dynamic here though. Any comments appreciated as always. Brad 
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#3
09-17-2005, 06:30 AM
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Re: Hmm live AKs hand
I'd be tempted to raise on the turn.
The 3-bet preflop seems to indicate a solid pocket pair, and since one ace was burned, he's discounting the possibility that Hero might have held onto another one. He's got KK-99. Raise.
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#5
09-17-2005, 07:56 AM
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Re: Hmm live AKs hand
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river for (b) and I don't think it's close. Raise turn for (a). [/ QUOTE ]
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#6
09-18-2005, 04:52 AM
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Hmmmmmm indeed
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river for (b) and I don't think it's close. Raise turn for (a). [/ QUOTE ] I feel like the converse is true. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] I'm honestly shocked that almost everyone in micros thinks differently then I do. I feel like... A) This spot is more complex then it appears. B) Is the Gerber baby an idiot? (Okay this is true but we are talking with-in the context of this hand) Everyone knows how I feel about waiting to raise in these types of spots, but I feel very strongly that we should raise right now against a good player... What are some good things that come from raising right now? Why should we wait? What is better? Brad
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#7
09-18-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Hmmmmmm indeed
B)
Raising right now will get him to fold an underpair that might draw out on you on the river. If you call the turn he must put you on an ace, and he is unlikely to pay off on the river with an underpair. If has an ace he is going to showdown (he has K or Q kicker), so you can choose where you want to get the extra bet out of him. You make more money by knocking out the underpairs on the turn. If he is a bad player he will pay you off on the river with an underpair enough to compensate for the times he draws out on you. So it is better to keep him in by calling the turn and raising the river.
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#8
09-17-2005, 08:40 AM
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Re: Hmm live AKs hand
[ QUOTE ]
He's got KK-99. Raise. [/ QUOTE ] If he's good then this makes no sense. If he has got one of these hands then he's probably going to fold and we win the least, but if he's got us beat with a set or a 2pair then he's going to reraise and we're going to have the worst of it. A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. A bad player I'm going to raise the Turn.
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#9
09-17-2005, 10:42 AM
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Re: Hmm live AKs hand
[ QUOTE ]
A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. [/ QUOTE ] "Good" villan views us as weak, remember. And, I think if we put a play on that has us folding TPTK on the river, he's right. I want to show this down; if you can't call the 3-bet, you shouldn't be raising.
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#10
09-18-2005, 02:55 PM
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Re: Hmm live AKs hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He's got KK-99. Raise. [/ QUOTE ] If he's good then this makes no sense. If he has got one of these hands then he's probably going to fold and we win the least, but if he's got us beat with a set or a 2pair then he's going to reraise and we're going to have the worst of it. A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. A bad player I'm going to raise the Turn. [/ QUOTE ] A good player that views us as tight is behind in this hand no matter what (or possibly tied). His only chance is to hit a 2-outer for a set or a 3-outer for two-pair on the river. I seriously doubt a solid villain is going to 3-bet preflop with A7, 77 or worse hands. He can't have AA. I have over 95% confidence that Hero is ahead or tied at the turn.
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