10-20 Badugi Hand vs GuyOnTilt

[Chris Daddy Cool]

10/20 great game where nobody has a clue except for me and GoT. (Saying I have a clue is stretching it a little. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

GoT is the CO and openraises. Button coldcalls and I 3-bet from the sb with JT62. BB folds. GoT caps. Button calls.

I stand pat. GoT stands pat. Button draws 2.

I bet. GoT raises. Button folds. I 3-bet. GoT calls.

I stand pat. GoT stands pat.

I check. GoT bets. I call.

I stand pat. GoT stands pat.

I check intending to fold.

[timprov]

I don't get this line at all. If you're looking to get away from the hand, either bet-fold or check-fold the turn. Check-call turn and check-fold river is just a waste of a bet.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't get this line at all. If you're looking to get away from the hand, either bet-fold or check-fold the turn. Check-call turn and check-fold river is just a waste of a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not looking to get away from the hand at all, at least not until I'm 100% sure, which I won't know until the river.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this line at all. If you're looking to get away from the hand, either bet-fold or check-fold the turn. Check-call turn and check-fold river is just a waste of a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, there is zero way I don't see what he stays pat and drives all the way with there. If you already know the range of hands he does that with, and you wont be getting odds against that range, the river is not the time to fold if you check/call the turn. (That is, unless he is checking the river enough (with a loser) here to make check calling the turn profitable, get out on the turn. I don't see GoT making a check/call/check/fold line profitable for you.)

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
That is, unless he is checking the river enough (with a loser) here to make check calling the turn profitable, get out on the turn. I don't see GoT making a check/call/check/fold line profitable for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it matters much that it's GoT here. As long as we can presume he actually has a badugi, just from combinatorics we can see that it's not going to be worse than JT often enough.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think it matters much that it's GoT here. As long as we can presume he actually has a badugi, just from combinatorics we can see that it's not going to be worse than JT often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that's a straight combinatoric argument, it might presume that the 3-card draw is somewhat decent.

4-high badugis: 1
5-high badugis: 5
6-high badugis: 10
7-high badugis: 20
8-high badugis: 35
9-high badugis: 56
T-high badugis: 84
J3-high: 1
J4-high: 3
J5-high: 6
J6-high: 10
J7-high: 15
J8-high: 21
J9-high: 28
JT-high: 36
Q-high: 165
K-high: 220

Better than JT: 295
Worse than JT: 385

But, as long as we assume he's drawing to no worse than a T, then the odds he has a Q or K are pretty small. (Out of A23456789T, eleven cards, 3 pair him, 8 beat you. J may or may not be good for him, Q and K are bad. So even if he's an idiot and stands with any badugi you are getting no better than 8:3, maybe 9:2.

[timprov]

He never drew.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
He never drew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duh.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That is, unless he is checking the river enough (with a loser) here to make check calling the turn profitable, get out on the turn. I don't see GoT making a check/call/check/fold line profitable for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it matters much that it's GoT here. As long as we can presume he actually has a badugi, just from combinatorics we can see that it's not going to be worse than JT often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not combinatorics I was getting at, but conditional probability. If the bet on the turn means he is behind less than 90%, but an ensuing bet on the river means he is behind more than 92% of the time, his line works (if I added the pot correctly). I just don't see both of those conditions being met.