HU SNG theory question 1

[jon_1van]

I recently started playing the HU SNGs on PS.

For those who aren't aware of them, each player starts with 1500. Blinds levels are 10/20-->15/30-->25/50-->50/100

In my expereince (of about 20 low buying) sng's it is rare for the SNG to last to the 50/100 round.

So most of the SNG is played pretty deep.

Question 1
How shallow does your opponent need to be for you to risk doubling him up with a most likely inferior hand. For instance, you have 57s, you think your opponent has something like KJ. He pushes _____ into a pot with 75 in it. What does that blank have to be for you to call with any hand you think is live.



Thought process A.

Well, if you think your hand is live you should call with all sorts of hands. The reason is if you think you are 40/60 then by calling you will win the whole SNG 40% of the time. And the remaining 60% of the time you'll win (say you have a slight edge) 60% of those times. So in total you'll win 40% + .6*60% = 76% of the time.


Thought process B.

It would be retarded to call when you think you are a 40/60 dog. Just ship him the 75 and move on.


Now, I see flaws in both thought processes.

In process A we might not be maximizing the possible % win when auto calling a dog. It should be easy to contruct a situation where we win a large portion of the time when we already have a large portion of the chips. So just showing that we win alot does not show that we win the highest % possible from that point in the SNG.

The problem with B is that using this logic too much when the opponent starts trying to push themselves out of the basement might really hurt your chances. If you allow an opponent to push 3 consecutive times they could easily go from 600 to 600 + 50 + 25 + 50 = 725. Now if you decide to take a stand your opponent goes to 1450 instead of 1200.


So how many chips does your opponent have to have for you to call the 1st push irregardless (3k chips in play)? Currently my answer is 700 chips. From here on out I push every playable hand. I also call any push if I think my cards are likely to be live.

[Indiana]

Very very good post. Give me some time to digest. I am working on becoming a heads up specialist so this is great for me. I do think there is a point where you can take the worst of it and get him all in for the win. Personally, for me if I can still retain a 2:1 chip lead after losing the hand then that's my threshold for considering the 57 vs KJ stuff that you discuss.

Comments from other good HU players?

Indy

Indy

[valenzuela]

I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.

Well if ______ is 80, then of course it's a call.

[Irieguy]

It depends on your opponnent and how he's playing his short stack.

A lot of players get nervous/frustrated/pissed, etc. when they get short and push frequently. If that's the case, you have plenty of time to wait for a good racing hand that rates to be well ahead of him with which to win the tournament.

If the player is better than you, and is stubborn with his short stack, you would do well to take any 2 live cards against him for a chance to win.

If the player is passive, has been passive, and will continue to be passive even with a short stack... then you don't ever have to race until he is all-in for his BB.

So, this isn't a math problem. Nor are most HU strategy and decision dilemmas.

Irieguy

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. HU, you cannot judge a play isolated from the play before or from the play you plan for next hand. HU is a dance. It is one whole story. You can very well make a -CEV play that gives you a greater return two hands later. Of course, you should not make a huge -CEV move. But a slight -CEV move is OK.

My HU opponents at Stars 15+1 tend to be not too good. I tend to sacrifice a couple of chips in terms of -CEV here and there just to get a feel how they play and to create an impression how I play.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about $EV?

[HesseJam]

Oh, everybody already read this months article? Well worth it for anybody who feels lost at HU battles.

[valenzuela]

the example you described above would be a +ev play. Any play that will bring chips on the long run is +ev, even if its not +ev right away.
to the other dude:Cev is the same as $ in Hu

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
If the player is passive, has been passive, and will continue to be passive even with a short stack... then you don't ever have to race until he is all-in for his BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really so your opponent pushes 200 into a 75 pot and trying to bust him doesn't at least cross your mind?


[ QUOTE ]
If the player is better than you, and is stubborn with his short stack, you would do well to take any 2 live cards against him for a chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

So how much will you call here for a chance to bust this guy? 400? 600? 1000? If you do double up your skilled opponent now you put yourself in dramatically different situations. Big lead/evenish/Big Dog.

Come at least try to come up with some number.