Choose your own adventure- Set of Jacks vs. Unknown.

[crosse91]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

MP3 ($321.45)
CO ($517.10)
Button ($192)
SB ($326.05)
BB ($100)
UTG ($720.25)
UTG+1 ($196.75)
Hero ($223.80)
MP2 ($135.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP2 calls $8, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $6.

Flop: ($27) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, MP2 folds, UTG+1 calls $173.75 (All-In), Hero ???

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 folds, UTG+1 calls 196.75 (All-In), Hero ???



well- fire away.

[imported_anacardo]

Preflop action pls.

[crosse91]

there we are.

[stu-unger]

this is a ragged spot. without a read i think i find a fold. against a villain that will do this with str8+flush draw i insta-call. i think u see AK here enough to make this a correct fold.

[imported_anacardo]

God I hate this.

What can you tell me about UTG+1?

[crosse91]

he's the unknown from the title [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[imported_anacardo]

This is the sort of thing that the disconnect-cheat was made for.

<font color="white">I would never, ever disconnect-cheat. I report suspected abusers routinely, may their babies die of cancer. </font>

[async]

Well, given his cold calling (no re-raise) and his heavy action on the flop, I'm guessing you're up against one of 3-4 hands:

AQh, AK, TT, or QQ.

You're getting something close to 5:3, so if you can figure if you're ahead 40% of the time, you want to call.

Win rates for you against:
AQh 60%
AKh 30%
TT 91%
QQ 4%

Which hands is he most likely to be holding?

As for hands which don't raise but do call your raise, I think TT and AQ are more likely than QQ or AK.

It's also quite conceivable the villain is on another weak hand like JQs or TJs. But I think TT may push here simply because it is REALLY hard to lay down, but if he can get you to fold this, his FE makes it profitable.

So, I call.

[amoeba]

I don't think its AK. maybe 89.

do they really check call preflop with AK here?

I think a strong possibility is KQh. man... thats like an omaha hand almost.

[async]

Yeah, KQh would be a very reasonable hand, also. More likely than AK, certainly. But he's a favorite against KQh slightly, also.

Edit: as for 89, it seems generally unlikely. But even against 89, win rate is 29%. Given 89 seems fairly remote, that isn't really enough to sway it.