Fold this AA?

[SonOfWestwood]

Button is 42.5/0/0.1/31/50 after ~45 hands.

Absolute, 6 max, 0.5 BB NL, currently 5 handed

Button (116.62)
Hero (166.45)

A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP

Pre-flop:
UTG limps, Hero raises to 2.5, Button calls, 3 folds

Flop (6.25): 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets 5, Button calls

Turn (16.25): Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets 10, Button min-raises to 20, Hero calls

I immediately think AQ or QQ. 33, 22, and TT are all possibilities too, looking back now. Slight chance of KK too, I suppose. Should I have folded to the min-raise? I'm not very good at doing that when I have aces...

River (46.25): 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets 40, Hero folds.

Getting around 9.5:4 for the call here. Anyone make it? I just can't see villain having AQ or KK in this case 30%+ of the time.

Thanks for all comments.

[GrunchCan]

Do you have a specific read that leads you to believe that the opponent will call your PSB on the flop with just 2 overcards?

[SonOfWestwood]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a specific read that leads you to believe that the opponent will call your PSB on the flop with just 2 overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, nothing specific like that. So it's all a deduction based on his PT numbers.

[GrunchCan]

Well you don't have many hands on this guy. 45 is a molecule. But if he's as loose & especially as passive as the numbers seem to suggest, I see very little chance you're ahead after the turn minraise. I could easily be wrong here, but I'm giving a lot of thought to folding. Then again, I may call then block the river. That might be the better play.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Well you don't have many hands on this guy. 45 is a molecule. But if he's as loose & especially as passive as the numbers seem to suggest, I see very little chance you're ahead after the turn minraise. I could easily be wrong here, but I'm giving a lot of thought to folding. Then again, I may call then block the river. That might be the better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you on the river block, Grunch. About how much does the trick? $20-$25?

[SonOfWestwood]

River block is probably a good idea. I was so stuck on villain having QQ that I just checked without really considering that. What do you do with the river decision as played?

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
River block is probably a good idea. I was so stuck on villain having QQ that I just checked without really considering that. What do you do with the river decision as played?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. But, I think it's close and I tend to be conservative. Wonder if this is a call for Grunch.

[GrunchCan]

I don't block less than half pot. You don't want it to look like a block. I mean, your opponent doesn't have to know what the function of a blocking bet is to know that donk-betting ~20 in to a $45 pot looks a little wierd. On this hand, I'd probably err on the side of caution & bet 30. There's no way a hand that one-pair beats raises that bet. A nut ball might bluff-raise or even value-raise AQ if you bet just 20. IMO.

[GrunchCan]

As played... yuck. It seems like a very close decision to me. I can't hate a fold, but I would probably feel compelled to call. I'd grit, call & expect to lose. Then I'd take a 10-minute break. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

He's got Q10. Call a river push if it's a 2 or a 3, fold this one.