QQ in the BB, PP 15K (100+9)

[TheNoodleMan]

My stack is just below average. We started with 180 players, we are down to 50, only 20 make the money. This is the biggest hand I've held so far, should I lay it down?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (10 handed) converter

MP3 (t2845)
CO (t3310)
Button (t950)
SB (t2380)
Hero (t2935)
UTG (t2400)
UTG+1 (t6555)
UTG+2 (t3335)
MP1 (t6457)
MP2 (t6308)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t3000</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero?

[Lloyd]

Reads/impressions?

[TheNoodleMan]

no reads. I had just been moved to the table and had seen less than a full orbit.

[Lloyd]

So say we put UTG on AA-99, AK-AQ and UTG+1 on AA-TT, AK. You are a slight favorite against that range with 37% pot equity. So while you probably have the best hand, you'll bust out 2 out of 3 times. This assumes that UTG calls as well.

And if UTG folds, you're a slight favorite to more than double up against UTG+1 who very likely has a middle pair or AK.

Are you okay busting out a fair amount of time but more than doubling or trippling up if you win?

[TheNoodleMan]

I'm out to make a run at winning the whole thing, not sneak into the money. I'm not afraid to go broke, especially since my stack is merely average at this point, but I'd like to be fairly sure that I'm not drawing to 2 outs with my tournement on the line. I'd love to double (or triple) up, but nothing says strength like a raise UTG, and a re-raise UTG+1. At the 100+9 buy in, I'd like to think that the remaining third of the field are fairly strong players.

[Lloyd]

What is potentially stronger than UTG+1's push? A raise to around T1500. A push is very often a small to medium pair or AK.

[Deftoner]

I'd be suprised to see something other than AK/JJ-88. I call.

[TheNoodleMan]

Thanks for the input guys. I really like the tought process that puts UTG+1 on AK or a smaller pp. you are right, a smaller raise would be scarier. Anyone else with any input on this would be greatly appriciated. This was one of the tougher situations I've come across in my limited MTT experience.

[beenben]

Push all in.

[Mammux]

I might fold this. If I had to guess I would put UTG+1 on JJ and UTG on AK, but either of them could easily have AA or KK. I think the crucial piece of information here is UTG+1s oversized reraise. Some people play JJ this way, others play KK or even AA with a big reraise. Without a read, it's hard to tell.

You're not committed to this pot. Wait for a better spot.

-Magnus