Huge vag. or well played?

[Jonny Melon]

This post got me thinking. Is it really correct to raise the river here? Would a 2+2er bet AK on the river, given how this played out? I'm thinking he would check.

If the 2+2er would check AK, then what we are (typically) looking at here are TT - AA, which truly is a coin flip. I think TT, JJ and the case QQ would pay off a raise. So the question of raising the river comes down to the likelihood that your opponent will 3-bet w/ KK or AA. If the answer is no, then a river raise is a nice play. If the answer is yes, then I think a call is order, because even a 1% chance of your opponent 3-betting a weaker hand swings it in favor of a call.

I suspect some part of my reasoning is flawed here; I would like to hear your opinions.

Jon