Won big, but now it's going bad. Boo hoo hoo.

[MycroftX]

I'm basically a beginner, but I do pretty good for myself.
I built up a big enough BR to play .50/1 with 300BB, I originally started with $50.

About a week ago I won 1st in a $5 Multi-table tourny. The pay day was great, and I left the $330 that I had before I won the tournament in my account.

Ever since I won it though, I've had a bad run at ring games. I'm down about 100BB.

This has occured over about 1,200 hands, and I can't seem to shake it. That's like loosing 12BB/100hands correct?. My last 10 sessions (all since the tournament) have been losing sessions, usually I sit down for 100-150 hands at a time. Also I only play one table at a time.

In the 6 weeks that it took me to build up my $50 BR to 300 bucks at mostly .25/.50, I did fine. Nothing special, I've always known I'm just above a break even player, but it was enough! To make a little money anyways. (I cashed out $50 here and there on the way to 300 bucks) All in all PT told me I had made $400 at Paradise.

Again, I'll stress that I'm only a marginal player, but people on-line are just so bad... having only a slight edge was enough.

However, lately it has just been going terrible. Could it be Psychological? Was I just really lucky before, and this recent play is a true representation of my skill?

Should I step back down to .25/.50? If this trend continues my 230 dollars will just continue to shrink. interestlingy enough, my VP$IP is the same as it's always been. (28-29%)
But my winning % with big hands has fallen big time. especially AK, which used to be my biggest winner.

Has anyone else experienced a bad run like this after a great hot streak, or winning a MTT?

[Burno]

Quit worrying, this is part of poker. One of the most difficult aspects of the game is weathering a severe downswing. 100 BB is a downswing, but it's not nearly as bad as a 300 BB swing, which can occur. It seems like this is your first significant downswing. Every winning player has them, and every player struggles to deal with them.

1200 hands is a ridiculously small sample of hands. I play more than that every day. Some posters here play 1200 hands in 80 or 90 minutes. I imagine you are playing the same, luck's just gone against you lately. Keep your head up and your good fortune will return if you continue to play solid poker.

Burno

[Demana]

Normal variance, though your VP$P is a tad high.

There's upswings and downswings, the higher limit you play, the more money it will be. This is why you must have a bank roll that can survive the swings at that limit.

Just keep playing your game, reading the books, and posting hands on 2+2 and you'll find your upswing again.

btw - There are gaggles of posts like this in the psych forum. Read and learn from other's perspectives as they go through the same swings that you do.

[ZZZ]

It's more like 8BB/100 that you lost.

I can say with absolute certainty that those results are not indicative of your skill. It's very hard to lose more than a couple BB/100 due to bad playing. You can lose a ton due to bad luck though. Think about it this way... Let's say you are at a table with 9 terrible players. Even if your true win rate is the ludicrously high 9BB/100, each opponent is only losing an average of 1BB/100 due to their bad play.

As other posters have said 100BB losing streaks are common even for tremendous players.

It sounds like you are likely a winning player at these limits, but we all have holes in our games. You should definitely tighten up. Read Small Stakes Holdem by Ed Miller.

If the reason you are playing so many hands is partially because of boredom, try playing 2 tables, but move back to the .25/.50 tables before trying this.

Hope this helps,
ZZZ

[MycroftX]

[ QUOTE ]
If the reason you are playing so many hands is partially because of boredom, try playing 2 tables, but move back to the .25/.50 tables before trying this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like it might be a good idea. But probably only after I settle down, and get my head back playing one table at .25/.50

[Grisgra]

Nope. Nobody has ever gone through a -100BB swing over 1000 hands. You really should consider taking up another game. Perhaps Parcheesi.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
It's very hard to lose more than a couple BB/100 due to bad playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?

[SeanSkill]

If you have been on a big upswimg that moves you up a level or two, you need to be careful that you dont start a downswing at a higher level. I have had the same thing happen to me twice. If your cards start getting colder table down to your previous level, play a lot of hands, and practice folding a lot. I dont know that the math behind this is correct however, It would seem that if you have been getting a lot of good cards lately you are do for a corection. I had an 800BB upswing in 6k hands and was in the same spot you are in I dropped 60BB which was the equivelent of 120 BB at my previous level. I tabled down and have seen nothing but crap cards for about 1500 hands. I know I got sloppy on the upswing and I am just working on getting my game back to where it should be.

[oljumpstart]

Oh brother. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

I'll second what others have said that down-swings of this nature can and do happen and don't have to be related to some sort of "I'm a poker-god because I won an MTT" mentality that might set in.

however, your VPIP is definitely high imo and it might indicate that you were running better than usual when you were winning.

however, since you didn't know what you BB/100 was I am going to guess that you don't have pokertracker.
If that's the case, you might just be using the 'see-flop' percentage stat that the site gives you.
If so, then you should be aware that a "see-flop%" of 28-29 isn't so bad. It usually means your VPIP is around 23-24 or so...which I still consider to be high....but not nearly as bad.

SF% is ANY hand where you see the flop.
VPIP is any hand where you put money into the pot VOLUNTARILY. So if you get a free look from the BB then it does NOT count as VPIP (assuming you fold when you miss the flop).


FWIW - I think most winning players around here have VPIP of 20 or less. This will depend on how passive your table is, of course. But it's a rough guideline.
I just don't think there are that many tables out there where you should legitimately have a VPIP close to 30...but I could be wrong.

I have VPIP-18 more often than not....although I'm playing different tables than you obviously.