Two Semi-Common Logical Fallicies: Continuation Bets

[Jman28]

1) Folded to me in the sb with xx. If I raise 3x the BB, the BB will call. If I bet pot-size the flop, he will fold over half the time, and raise the rest (I fold to a raise). Since I win an even money bluff over half the time, raising preflop with the intention to bluff the flop is a profitable play.

2) I raised preflop with AK. I missed the flop heads-up in position. It's checked to me. If there is a 55% chance I will win the pot with a pot-sized bet, I should make it. EDIT: I will be raised the other 45% and have to fold.

(Each probably has a few reasons why they are wrong. Assume pot-size bets are the only ones allowed.)

Discuss.

[Nick B.]

1) position position position. If he pushes pf, which a lot of bb's will do you are screwed. If he raises any flop you are screwed.
2) With AK I like to C-bet when i think i have the best hand.

I know that probably doesn't answer either of those questions but that is what came to my mind when i read your post.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
1) position position position. If he pushes pf, which a lot of bb's will do you are screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I specified that the BB will always call. Don't worry about stack sizes either. The only possibilities after raising pf are:

a) You bet pot size. He folds.
b) You bet pot size. He raises. You fold.
c) You check. He bets. You fold.

We are assuming that you will not hit a hand (I know this isn't exactly a real life situation.)

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises any flop you are screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. He will raise less than half the time though, and fold more than half the time. That makes a flop bluff profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
2) With AK I like to C-bet when i think i have the best hand.

I know that probably doesn't answer either of those questions but that is what came to my mind when i read your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't the specific answers I had in mind, no. But I don't expect everyone to think like me. I like to hear everyone's thinking processes.

I may be thinking about these situations incorrectly myself.

[ChuckNorris]

Looks like these are high variance plays with a pretty small +CEV. Also in number one it's obviously wiser to complete and then bet the flop, if BB calls 100% of the time (edit: and you have crap).

In real life you can adjust your bets, so making pot-sized continuation bets is just silly. That's why I don't quite get the point of this post.

[gumpzilla]

In the first case, the flop bet itself may be profitable on average while the whole sequence - raise PF followed by flop bet - loses chips, and so you can't break it up if the play really consists of both parts. To see this quickly, now assume that the flop bet is breakeven in terms of EV. You're losing the 2.5 BBs you put in above your SB as well in this situation, so it isn't very good. You need the BB to fold quite often if you're making a bet that large; however, you can probably scale down the bet without scaling down the frequency of how often he folds, and then this move gets more profitable.

I'll look at case 2 later.

[fnord_too]

1. Folding will result in you losing .5BB. In scenario 2, there is a 55% chance you win 3BB and a 45% you lose 6BB (assuming you always fold to his raise). That is .55*3 - .45*6 = -1.05BB, that's .55BB worse than folding pre flop.

2. Here c-betting is profitable if the hand ended on the flop. The question is whether it is more profitable to check. If you are ahead, you are giving a free card to a 3-many outer, that's bad. If you are behind, an A or K may give you the better hand, your may not. Also, there are redraw issues. I just finished my last S&G for the night, and am grabbin a beer so I am not going to do the math. (And the math is much more of a pain than in the frist case, but that has NOTHING to do with my not wanting to do it, nothing at all, nope, nada damn thing...)


Edit loosing != losing

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

In the first case, the flop bet itself may be profitable on average while the whole sequence - raise PF followed by flop bet - loses chips, and so you can't break it up if the play really consists of both parts. To see this quickly, now assume that the flop bet is breakeven in terms of EV. You're losing the 2.5 BBs you put in above your SB as well in this situation, so it isn't very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. (And by correct, I mean what I had in mind when posting)

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

1. Folding will result in you loosing .5BB. In scenario 2, there is a 55% chance you win 3BB and a 45% you lose 6BB (assuming you always fold to his raise). That is .55*3 - .45*6 = -1.05BB, that's .55BB worse than folding pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. And just a minute late to be the big winner.

[ QUOTE ]

2. Here c-betting is profitable if the hand ended on the flop. The question is whether it is more profitable to check. If you are ahead, you are giving a free card to a 3-many outer, that's bad. If you are behind, an A or K may give you the better hand, your may not. Also, there are redraw issues. I just finished my last S&G for the night, and am grabbin a beer so I am not going to do the math. (And the math is much more of a pain than in the frist case, but that has NOTHING to do with my not wanting to do it, nothing at all, nope, nada damn thing...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Good work again. You don't have to go into the math. I think actually the math is impossible without knowing a whole lot more about your opponent. Anyways, I didn't want this to become a huge math project, just a simple conceptual one.

You got the main point I was getting at here, which was that just because a bet wins you the pot over half the time doesn't mean you should make it. You still usually have plenty of pot equity if you check behind.

There are always more factors in a hand than you realize.

More thoughts?

[Degen]

run those numbers w/ 1/2 pot bets and they look even sweeter [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ilya]

Hmm well the more clean outs you have and the fewer clean outs or outs to redraws your opponent figures to have, the more you should be inclined to check if he always folds 55%/raises 45% on the flop. Intuitively I think you want to have more than a 11:9 edge on equity from outs against your opponent's range before you check. That way you figure to get a bigger edge from taking a free card than you do from checking the flop. But that's if you're for some reason always folding to a raise on the flop.

edit: I just realized it's more complicated than that since there are 2 cards to come. Crap, I dunno. I guess I think you should check if you figure to have more than an 11:9 on equity against just turn outs, then check again on turn if the same limitations apply and you have more than an 11:9 edge on equity againt river outs.